Odds on James Harden’s team at start of 2023-24 season: Best bet is actually on 76ers, not Clippers

Over ten days have passed since James Harden opted into his $35.6 million contract for next season and Daryl Morey began working on trading him out of Philadelphia. And the further we get from that request — and the closer we get to the regular season — the more it looks like the Beard might be starting the 2023 season in a 76ers uniform. 

Sure, the odds still favor Harden getting dealt to the Clippers, the rumored frontrunner along with the Knicks since shortly after ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski broke the news of the opt-in. But as Woj said recently on SportsCenter, "it's more than conceivable" that nothing happens this summer. 

"That's been Daryl Morey's track record — of not just giving away an asset," Wojnarowski explained. "They do have time on their side in the offseason, but they'll be engaged with teams — and I do think that with Damian Lillard being on the market, in one aspect it can make it harder for Philly if teams are prioritizing a Lillard trade. But there might be a way where there's a multi-team deal that allows all of them to get what they want. Those typically don't come together very quickly. 

Woj has also said in other appearances and tweets that Philly's asking price for Harden has been high, which might make potential trade partners soured on the idea of acquiring him. It's quite possible, after all, that Harden jets (again) from wherever he lands after the 2023-24 season — making him a very high-priced one-season rental. 

"[The Sixers have] to get value for James Harden if they’re going to trade him," Woj said in an SC update. "You are in this window with Joel Embiid trying to win championships with him. This is not an easy trade to make with essentially trading for an expiring contract in James Harden. I think it’s another situation that’s going to play out through free agency, into summer league, and probably beyond."

This opens up a window of value-betting opportunity on the futures market, with Harden still listed at +270 on DraftKings to play his next minute for the 76ers. Harden could very well be the next Ben Simmons, the player Morey sat on for months and months and eventually turned into Harden via a blockbuster trade with the Nets. So, why not capitalize on the good chance of the status quo sticking, at least for now?

Let's take a look at DraftKings' "Next team odds" for Harden, and then further discuss how we would proceed as bettors based on all the information we have received about the Beard sweepstakes so far.

SUMMER LEAGUE BETTING: Championship | MVP odds, best bets

James Harden "Next Team" Odds

Next regular season minute played to be for which NBA team? [2023-24 only]

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

James Harden's team in 2023-24: Best bets

Philadelphia 76ers (+270)

As we alluded to in the intro, Daryl Morey takes his time and waits for the right move — nobody, including Harden, will pressure him into pushing a deal through too quickly that nets Philadelphia a less-than-optimal return. And plenty of roadblocks stand in the way of Morey ever even getting that optimal return.

Not only is Harden a potential one-year rental since he's a free agent after the 2023-24 season, he's also owed $5.3 million the day he gets traded thanks to the new CBA. That extra $5.3 million would count as his salary in any trade involving him, meaning whichever team trades for him would have to account for it when matching salaries.

If a three-team or four-team trade gets drawn up, don't be surprised if it happens later than sooner. Blockbuster multiple-team trades don't get written up the moment one or two players say they want out, never mind when you're talking about player who were selected among the top 76 of all time. A lot of teams will take the offseason to assess the current state of their rosters and evaluate their actual chances of contending for a championship with or without a Harden move.

But the most important thing to understand about Harden is that no potential bidders feel any kind of pressure or urgency to go scoop him up ASAP. Executives know his market value is capped for a few reasons:

1. He's 33 years old, on a one-year contract, and not eligible for an extension.
2. Star point guards — especially veterans — have become less and less coveted over the past few years.
3. Lillard is largely viewed as the more desirable trade chip, because he's under contract for longer and seen as more loyal.

So, while we don't have a Magic 8-ball, all signs point to Harden at least starting the 2023-24 NBA season as a 76er. Remember: all three parts of a potential deal — Harden, the Sixers, and any ultimate trade partner — want to win a championship. Trading him just to get it over with makes no sense for Morey, and wasting assets to acquire him makes no sense to a team without realistic chances at short-term contention. We're getting a modest bet of $30 on the 76ers now, with the chance at a $111 payout if Harden remains untraded by Philly's opening tip this October.

Los Angeles Clippers (-180)

Of course, if Harden does start the season in another uniform, we have every reason to believe it will be the uniform of the Los Angeles Clippers. They were the franchise first mentioned by both Woj and Shams after the initial opt-in over 10 days ago, and they have been the contender most in need of a point guard over the past few seasons.

Harden and Russell Westbrook are very good friends and former teammates, and Harden reportedly wanted the Rockets to hire current Clippers head coach Ty Lue after Houston and Mike D'Antoni parted ways. The Beard would provide a fantastic third scoring option alongside Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, and a strong second scoring option if either of them miss time (it's well documented how seldom PG13 and the Claw have played together — just 118 total games in the four years since becoming teammates). And if both are out, it will be like Russ and Beard bringing back the good old days from OKC!

Harden led the NBA in assists last season, so let's not bury the lede. You put a ball-handler and playmaker as incredible as Harden on a Clippers squad with multiple upper-echelon scorers, and you're going to have fantastic results. On top of the amazing shooters he would enjoy around him in George and Leonard, he would also have two strong pick-and-roll partners in Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee. And inserting Harden into the Clips' starting five allows Westbrook to slide into a sixth man role, where he was arguably the most effective with both L.A. squads last season. So, yeah, if Harden goes anywhere, we think it's back home to southern California where he was born and raised.

James Harden's team in 2023-24: Fades

We have to believe Miami (+700) still has its sights set on Lillard, who clearly has South Beach at the top of his priority list of landing spots. New York (+600) has a better, younger point guard under contract in Jalen Brunson. We also won't see him go to Dallas (+2000) with fellow ball-dominant guards Kyrie and Luka, and the Lakers (+2000) can't afford him — so just cross all those squads off right now.

The only other team that had been heavily linked to Harden was his former squad, Houston (+2000), which happens to be where he lives. But the Rockets' ship sailed (or exploded) when Houston threw a massive bag at Fred VanVleet. A trio of FVV, Amen Thompson, and Harden makes very little sense for a Houston team that's still probably not winning a title anytime soon, even with former Celtics head coach and Eastern Conference champion Ime Udoka. Harden was probably only going back to Houston if he didn't opt in and the Rockets signed him to a large, multi-year contract. 

James Harden's team in 2023-24: Dark horses

Phoenix Suns (+4000)

This is the definition of a long shot, as Phoenix literally just acquired Bradley Beal and the Suns have a tremendous amount of money on their payroll between Beal, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and DeAndre Ayton. But it's also not completely out of the realm of possibilities — Harden and Durant are close friends, and Phoenix has a very motivated owner/management team headed by principal owner Mat Ashbia and GM James Jones. Beal also makes the Sixers better immediately, providing them with much-needed shooting without taking away from MVP Joel Embiid's role or stunting the development of Tyrese Maxey as Philly's next primary ball-handler.

Chicago Bulls (+4000)

The Bulls are another squad that has been without a stud point guard for many, many years. They thought Lonzo Ball would fill that void, but he has been ravaged by injuries since signing with Chicago in 2021. And All-Stars Zach LaVine — a mainstay in trade rumors — and DeMar DeRozan — entering the final year of his contract — would both be alluring options for Morey to consider bringing in alongside other assets and picks. Chicago is a big market with a solid shot at making a run at the title with the addition of Harden and one or two ancillary moves. It could happen, but it probably won't.

San Antonio Spurs (+4000)

Last and least likely, the Spurs. They just landed No. 1 pick and expected generational talent Victor Wembanyama, they just re-signed modern-day NBA coaching GOAT Gregg Popovich to a lucrative five-year deal, and they have the young pieces and draft equity to raise any team's eyebrows in a trade. Plus, Pop also just landed Reggie Bullock and his $10.5 million expiring contract, so Bullock, a young asset, and some picks might conceivably work since San Antonio has $12.5 million in cap space. But it's highly unlikely Pop wants to deal Keldon Johnson or Jeremy Sochan, and Morey probably wants more of a win-now return than the Spurs can offer. So, while it's a fun thought to reunite Harden with his former Team USA coach, that kind of a trade is probably only happening in NBA2K24.

In summary, for the tl;dr crowd: The most likely team to ultimately land Harden is the Clippers, and the most likely team to start the season with Harden is the Sixers. No fireworks, no massive odds, no big paydays for futures bettors. Oftentimes, the most boring and least lucrative betting options are the most likely scenarios. Don't waste your money on any +2000 bets that don't make sense for all parties, or drop a huge wager on a +4000 long shot. Bet with your head, not with your heart, and go with what makes the most sense.