The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby field at T-Mobile Park in Seattle is officially set. Eight sluggers will look to stake their claim as the new home run king. Last year at Dodger Stadium, Juan Soto (+600) took home the crown, defeating Mariners' outfielder Julio Rodriguez in the final round, 19-18. Rodriguez will be looking to return to the final round this year in front of the hometown crowd in Seattle.
However, it will not be easy for Rodriguez, as he will face Mets star first baseman Pete Alonso in the first round on Monday night. Alonso is making his fourth derby appearance and looking to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only two players to win three Home Run Derbys. Alonso is the betting favorite (+275) to win this year's Derby after falling short of winning his third-straight last summer.
Below, we'll break down the latest odds on who could win this year's Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park before highlighting some sleepers who could shake up the eight-man, bracket-style field.
Who's competing in the 2023 HR Derby?
- No. 1 seed Luis Robert vs. No. 8 seed Adley Rutschman
- No. 2 seed Pete Alonso vs. No. 7 seed Julio Rodriguez
- No. 3 seed Mookie Betts vs. No. 6 seed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- No. 4 seed Adolis Garcia vs. No. 5 seed Randy Arozarena
MLB Home Run Derby 2023 odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click HERE to sign up!
| Player | Odds |
| Pete Alonso | +275 |
| Luis Robert | +400 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +400 |
| Adolis Garcia | +500 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +550 |
| Randy Arozarena | +900 |
| Mookie Betts | +1000 |
| Adley Rutschman | +2000 |
MLB Home Run Derby 2023 odds: Favorite
Pete Alonso, Mets (+275). To no one's surprise, the two-time champion is the favorite to win another Home Run Derby. Alonso was eliminated in the semifinals last summer by Rodriguez, who slugged 31 home runs in Los Angeles. Alonso had "just" 23 home runs in the semis after barely defeating Ronald Acuna Jr. in the first round (20-19).
When Alonso won the Home Run Derby in 2021 at Coors Field, his secret weapon was ex-Mets bench coach Dave Jauss. It hasn't been confirmed yet if Jauss will be throwing to Alonso on Monday night in Seattle, but if he does, you have to like Alonso's chances to win another derby. If Alonso can get past Rodriguez in the first round -- not an easy task -- he will take on the winner of Mookie Betts/Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the semifinals. Betts is a first-time participant, while this is Guerrero Jr.s' second Home Run Derby. Guerrero faced Alonso in the finals in the '19 Home Run Derby, losing by one. Right now, prices vary on Alonso. BetMGM has him at +275, but that could change as more information comes out about who will pitch to him.
MLB Home Run Derby 2023 odds: Sleepers
Randy Arozarena, Rays (+900). Arozarena could be a sleeper to make a run to the finals, as he's on the perceived weaker side of the bracket with three other first-time participants. The 28-year-old outfielder is currently ranked 25th in the majors with 16 home runs, which isn't a lot of bombs. However, don't let the numbers fool you, as Arozarena has a ton of pop in his bat and could give Adolis Garcia a run for his money.
According to BetMGM, Arozarena is only a small underdog (+120) against Garcia (-140), who has crushed 21 home runs this season. If Arozarena can defeat Garcia in the first round, it sets up a matchup between the winner of Luis Robert and Adley Rutschman. If Rutschman were to knock out Robert, one has to believe Arozarena will be the betting favorite in that matchup. At 9/1 odds, bettors will get some return on investment for a player who loves the big stage and usually succeeds.
Mookie Betts, Dodgers (+1000). Betts is being slightly undervalued in this field, and it's because he's on the same side of the bracket as Alonso, Rodriguez, and Guerrero Jr. However, fans and bettors should not sleep on the veteran outfielder, who has hit 23 home runs this season, good for fifth in the majors.
Betts has a tough first-round matchup against Guerrero Jr., where's he a heavy underdog at +140. However, with how he's hitting this season (79th percentile in barrel rate), Betts could upset Guerrero, who only has 13 HRs. If Betts gets past Vlad Jr., which will take a phenomenal performance, he'll have to face Alonso or Rodriguez in the semis. It's not ideal for Betts, but if he makes it through that gauntlet, he will have defied the odds and paid off handsomely.
Best prop bets for 2023 Home Run Derby
Home Run Derby Round 1 -- Garcia vs. Arozarena (Arozarena +120). We hinted at this earlier, but we like Arozarena to pull an upset in Round 1 over Garcia, who has hit 22 home runs. The HR Derby never goes exactly how we expect. Remember last year when No. 8 seed Albert Pujols defeated No. 1 seed Kyle Schwarber in the first round (20-19)? We could see the same thing happen between these two sluggers, giving us an eventful first round.
Home Run Derby Round 1 -- Parlays (Robert & Rodriguez advance to Round 2 +250). This is a fun parlay, as the No. 1 seed Robert will face the No. 8 seed Rutschman and Alonso and Rodriguez will face off in another classic matchup.
Robert should advance against Rutschman, who is having a solid season for the Orioles with 11 home runs. However, Robert is having a ridiculous season for the White Sox, clubbing 25 home runs. If the White Sox had a better record, he would be in the MVP convo. As for Rodriguez, he has a tough matchup, but the hometown crowd could lift him. He also has a slight advantage over Alonso, as he knows the dimensions of T-Mobile Park. The implied probability of this parlay hitting is 28.57 percent, which is not bad and worth putting a half-unit on.