Alexander Volkanovski has been unstoppable since joining the UFC's featherweight division. Can he continue his run against interim champion Yair Rodriguez at UFC 290, or will Rodriguez be the official third full-time champion from Mexico this year?
UFC 290 airs on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S. on July 8. The card will be inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, all part of International Fight Week.
The main event will see Brandon Moreno defend the UFC flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja. It is the third time the two are fighting one another, with Pantoja having Moreno's number. Will history repeat itself?
Also on the card, Robbie Lawler competes in his last UFC fight, Bo Nickal looks to continue his hot start, and several competitors from Dana White's Contender Series are ready to shine on a big stage.
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The Sporting News looks into the UFC 290 card via Sports Interaction. Can we expect any upsets?
UFC 290 card predictions
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Yair Rodriguez (ic) for the UFC featherweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Alexander Volkanovski is the -385 favorite, while Yair Rodriguez is the +275 underdog. While the champion has mowed down the competition at featherweight, Rodriguez could be his toughest test. Can the latter defy the odds?
Volkanovski lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 56%, ranked higher than Rodriguez's 4.78 strikes landed and 46% accuracy rate. In his last six bouts, Volkanovski has landed 915 shots. He holds the record for the highest striking differential (3.12) in UFC featherweight history.
Not to be outdone, Rodriguez has landed 461 significant strikes in six outings. Tied for the most post-fight bonuses in division history, Rodriguez can strike at any moment — just ask The Korean Zombie. Rodriguez's knockout power is something to watch out for. He will have a five-inch height advantage, but they are even in reach. Volkanovski's head movement and defense have resulted in an average strike-absorbed-per-minute mark of 3.40 (4.03 for Rodriguez).
Meanwhile, on the floor Volkanovski, averages 1.52 takedowns landed per 15 minutes (0.79 for Rodriguez). He got taken down four times by Makhachev, but Vokanovski was resilient.
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One has to believe this will be a striking clinic, and one punch can end it all. Given Volkanovski's well-rounded skill set and ability to adapt, he can control aspects of the fight with his speed. While Rodriguez is a threat, it doesn't appear that Volkanovski's reign is ending soon.
UFC 189's Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald 2 is being inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame this week. The vibe for Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez feels like a violent bout similar to Lawler vs. MacDonald. Buckle up, folks.
Sporting News prediction: Volkanovski via TKO (round four)
Brandon Moreno (c) vs. Alexandre Pantoja for the UFC flyweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Brandon Moreno is the -208 favorite, while Alexandre Pantoja is the +155 underdog.
It is a rematch from 2018, where Pantoja landed 79 significant strikes compared to 45 from Moreno, resulting in a unanimous decision win for the former. Pantoja also beat the champion on an episode of The Ultimate Fighter.
Pantoja lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute and has a 48% strike accuracy mark. Moreno lands 3.55 per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. The latter will have a slight edge in strike defense at 56% (54% for Pantoja).
On the ground, Moreno averages 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes (1.37 for Pantoja) and has taken down opponents 12 times in six fights. Pantoja has taken down opponents eight times during that span.
Known for bullying his opposite number before landing the premier strike or submission, Moreno is quick and dangerous. So is Pantoja, who used his submission game to earn a title shot. Moreno has improved dramatically since their first encounter, which makes The Sporting News believe "The Assassin Baby" will finally take down his rival in a fun fight.
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Sporting News prediction: Moreno via submission (round three)
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus du Plessis; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Robert Whittaker is the -385 favorite, while Dricus du Plessis is the +275 underdog.
Former champion Whittaker is 4-2 in his last six, the two losses against Israel Adesanya for middleweight gold. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute and has a 42% strike accuracy mark. Du Plessis, undefeated in the octagon, averages 6.72 significant strikes and has a 55% accuracy mark. He has quickly risen in the ranks, beating Darren Till and Derek Brunson in brutal fashion.
Du Plessis averages 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing nine in four fights. Whittaker averages 0.82 takedowns but has landed the same amount as his opponent. "The Reaper" has the edge over Du Plessis with an 84% takedown defense mark, which can come into play in this fight.
Both are hungry for gold, with Whittaker wanting to hold the middleweight title again. Whittaker's patient fighting style and striking have been the stuff of legend in the past. While Du Plessis can end an opponent when he pleases, his cardio (exposed in his last few fights) is something that Whittaker can take advantage of, tiring out the South African.
Sporting News prediction: Whittaker via unanimous decision
Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jalin Turner is the -278 favorite, while Dan Hooker is the +200 underdog.
Once a promising contender, Hooker is 2-4 in his previous six bouts. "The Hangman" beat Claudio Puelles in his previous fight, landing 29 significant strikes to his opponent's five. While Turner landed 40 significant strikes against Mateusz Gamrot's 29, the latter's four takedowns were enough to win.
It could be a striking clinic. Hooker lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute, while Turner lands 5.63. He can be an elite striker, but Hooker has taken a lot of damage recently, absorbing 4.61 strikes (3.79 for Turner). Hooker will have to dig deep to avoid Turner's strikes or get dazed enough that Turner can land a submission.
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Since 2020, Hooker has had to fight back to remain relevant in the octagon. A fan favorite, his recent sparring sessions have been praised by Adesanya. If he has found the fountain of youth, the New Zealander should get the win.
Sporting News prediction: Hooker via KO (round two)
Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Bo Nickal is the -1210 favorite, while Val Woodburn is the +800 underdog.
A three-time NCAA Division I National Champion and Big Ten Conference champion in wrestling, Nickal gets another main card spot. The Dana White’s Contender Series standout has landed five takedowns in three fights inside the octagon and earned an arm triangle submission in his first PPV event.
Woodburn turned pro in 2020 and five of his seven wins have come via knockout. He last fought in August 2022, beating Luis Melo via unanimous decision. "The Animal" replaces Tresean Gore, who tore a ligament in his wrist days before the fight. The former was set to compete on an upcoming Dana White's Contender Series. While the idea of an upset is possible, Nickal, considered the future of the UFC, expects to perform well here, continuing his rise to stardom.
Sporting News prediction: Nickal via submission (round one)
Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Niko Price is the -256 favorite, while Robbie Lawler is the +190 underdog. It is the last waltz for Lawler, who is getting inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame before UFC 290.
A legend in the sport, Lawler is 2-6 in his past eight fights. He can still strike with the best of them, averaging 3.83 significant strikes landed per minute with a 46% strike accuracy mark. Price is 3-4 with one no-contest in his previous eight and lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute to a 42% strike accuracy mark. He landed 110 significant strikes against Phil Row in December but got knocked out in the third round.
Both have traded wins and losses via the power punch or have gotten outworked in fights. It could be ugly, but it is the perfect bout for both. "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler will look to go out with a bang, which may be how he wins.
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Let's hope the MMA Gods aren't as unforgiving in this fight as they are when other elder fighters compete in the octagon for the last time.
Sporting News prediction: Lawler via TKO (round two)
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Josiah Harrell; Welterweights
* Note - this was crafted before the fight got nixed
Per Sports Interaction, Jack Della Maddalena is the -1030 favorite, while Joshiah Harrell is the +610 underdog.
Maddalena, a former EMMA welterweight champion, is on a 14-fight win streak and is 5-0 inside the octagon. A Dana White's Contender Series alum, the Aussie lands 8.27 significant strikes per minute and has a 49% strike accuracy mark. The 26-year-old has outstruck his opponents 216-112.
Harrell replaces Sean Brady, who backed out a few days before the fight. "Muscle Hamster" turned pro in 2020 and won four fights via knockout (currently on a three-fight knockout streak) and three via submission. His last fight was in June, so this is a quick turnaround.
Given the unknown nature of Harrell, especially inside the octagon, the odds are accurate to favor Maddalena, the fighter likely to be in better fight shape heading into UFC 290.
Sporting News prediction: Maddalena via KO (round one)
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes; Strawweights
Per Sports Interaction, Yazmin Jauregui is the -435 favorite, while Denise Gomes is the +295 underdog.
Jauregui, 24, is known for her time in Combate Global, where she won three fights in one night in 2021. Joining the UFC in 2022, the Mexican star lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute and has a 41% strike accuracy mark. Gomes lands 4.67 significant strikes and has a 47% accuracy mark. She landed 103 strikes in her Dana White's Contender Series debut in 2022 but mustered 73 in her last two. Jauregui has landed 153 in her previous two fights combined.
The undefeated Jauregui is precise and can hurt an opponent with ease. An impressive fighter at a young age, her knockout power will be enough to take down Gomes.
Sporting News prediction: Jauregui via TKO (round one)
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jimmy Crute is the -130 favorite, while Alonzo Menifield is the +100 underdog. It is a rematch, as their last fight at UFC 284 ended in a draw.
Menifield has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute at 3.88 (3.67 for Crute), while he has a slight edge in strike accuracy (57% compared to 55%). Crute averages 5.19 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, as seen by the six takedowns he produced against Menifield. Menifield does have a 75% takedown defense, which he will need to use to halt Crute this time out.
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The last time they fought, Menifield had two knockdowns while Crute had a late comeback. The former looked like the sharper fighter, which may be the case here. Expect another solid clash, but with Menifield doing more to persuade the judges this time.
Sporting News prediction: Menifield via unanimous decision
Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Vitor Petrino is the -294 favorite, while Marcin Prachnio is the +215 underdog.
A newbie inside the octagon, Petrino lands 3.43 significant strikes per minute, less than Prachnio's 5.70. Prachnio also has a 54% strike accuracy mark compared to 48& for Petrino. A former ONE fighter, Prachnio, 34, is 3-1 in his past four but has been dropped five times in three bouts. The 25-year-old Petrino has taken opponents down seven times in two octagon fights but has also been down six times.
Petrino will not have to worry about Prachnio's ground game but has to watch out for his strikes. The Polish fighter is dangerous, but Dana White's Contender Series' Petrino appears to have adapted well to the octagon. One shot can land him a spot further up the card, which may be the case here.
Sporting News prediction: Petrino via TKO (round one)
Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell; Bantamweights
Per Sports Interaction, Cameron Saaiman is the -556 favorite, while Terrence Mitchell is the +375 underdog.
Inside the octagon, Saaiman has landed 5.39 significant strikes per minute and had a 47% strike accuracy mark. Mitchell is making his octagon debut but has won seven fights via knockout. The volume of punches Saaiman has thrown and landed (landing 117 significant strikes in his last bout) makes one believe the Dana White's Contender Series alum is ready to go big or go home in this fight.
Sporting News prediction: Saaiman via KO (round two)
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Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jesus Aguilar is the -145 favorite, while Shannon Ross is the +115 underdog.
Ross is 0-2 in the octagon, while Aguilar is 1-1. Outside the UFC, Ross has won fights in EMMA and ACB. A submission specialist, Aguilar had his eight-fight win streak snapped via submission against Tatsuro Taira. Susceptible to being taken down, whether by the power punch or sheer force, Ross as an underdog holds true in this bout.
Aguilar is quick and will look to take Ross out when he finds an opening, which may not be long in the fight.
Sporting News prediction: Aguilar via submission (round three)
Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Esteban Ribovics is the -154 favorite, while Kamuela Kirk is the +125 underdog.
Kirk is 1-2 and lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute inside the octagon. Ribovics is 1-1 and lands 4.79 significant strikes. The latter got taken down 11 times against Loik Radzhabov. Kirk has been taken down seven times to his two takedowns. With six wins via knockout and five via submission, Ribovics isn't afraid to switch up his violent ways. Kirk has six wins via submission and five via knockout but hasn't had much luck since 2021.
Ribovics will look to recover after failing to beat stiff competition, and he may get his shot (literally) against Kirk.
Sporting News prediction: Ribovics via KO (round one)