Paul Skenes is one of the most hyped draft prospects Major League Baseball has seen in years.
Skenes transferred to LSU and carved up the SEC, the best conference in college baseball, and was dominant in the College World Series to help his team win a national championship. With his triple-digits fastball and wipeout slider, he was the most unhittable pitcher college baseball has seen in years.
As he prepares to head to the MLB Draft as a likely top two pick, Skenes' name often comes up alongside another former top pitching prospect: Stephen Strasburg. Back when the now-Nationals pitcher was coming up through the college ranks, he was widely considered to be the best pitching prospect of all time. For a brief time — until his future teammate Bryce Harper arrived in the draft a year later — there was a case to be made he was the highest-regarded draft prospect ever, regardless of position.
Strasburg has had a standout career in the big leagues, winning World Series MVP en route to helping the Nationals claim their only title in 2019. In 247 starts, he has a career ERA of 3.24 with 1,723 strikeouts in 1,470 innings of work. He is a three-time All-Star and three times received MVP votes. And his career still might have been better, had it not been for Tommy John surgery in his first year in the pros that significantly dipped his velocity following an electrifying pro debut.
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Skenes and Strasburg are not overly similar pitchers. Skenes has been almost exclusively a fastball/slider pitcher, while Strasburg came out of college with a more well-rounded repertoire that featured a fastball, curveball, changeup and sinker.
Still, their names will be frequently linked throughout the draft process. With the draft coming up, Sporting News is taking a look at the conversation around Skenes and Strasburg, what made Strasburg such a great draft prospect, what makes the two similar and which one is the better prospect.
Revisiting Stephen Strasburg as draft prospect
There was little acclaim for Strasburg when he came out of West Hills High School just outside San Diego, and he wound up going to the local school at San Diego State.
But he quickly ascended the prospect ranks after joining coach Tony Gwynn's Aztecs. He tallied seven saves as a freshman pitching in relief before he was named a starter in 2008. Strasburg immediately carved up the competition, pitching to a 1.58 ERA in 13 starts with 133 strikeouts in 97.1 innings.
After impressing on the international circuit between his sophomore and junior years, he was untouchable in his last year at San Diego State. Strasburg posted a 1.32 ERA in 15 starts (109 innings) with 195 strikeouts, 19 walks and just 65 hits allowed. The final start of the regular season saw him no-hit Air Force, and the only loss he took all year was to Virginia in the NCAA regionals, a game in which he fanned 15 across seven frames.
It wasn't just Strasburg's numbers that led him to go 1-1 in the 2009 MLB Draft. It was how he got those numbers. Strasburg averaged a fastball in the upper-90s and regularly hit triple-digits back when that wasn't nearly as common as it is now. On top of that, he had an outstanding curveball in the low-80s and a standout changeup that he could use when needed.
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As if that filthy arsenal wasn't enough, Strasburg also commanded all his pitches extremely well, possessing advanced control for someone his age, giving him a short path to the big leagues.
Baseball America wrote in its draft scouting report of Strasburg:
"There's no doubt that Strasburg is the best college pitching prospect since Mark Prior came out of Southern California in 2001. Prior's career illustrates that no amateur pitcher is guaranteed long-term professional success, but Strasburg is the closest to a sure thing that scouts have ever seen. Major league organizations may not see a prospect like Strasburg for another 20 or 30 years, so the Nationals will not let him pass with the No. 1 pick."
And as it turned out, Strasburg took no time to reach the majors. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2009 after he was selected first overall by the Nationals, and opened the season as the No. 2 prospect in the sport behind only Atlanta's Jason Heyward. Strasburg made a total of 11 starts between Double-A and Triple-A before he was promoted to make his big-league debut on June 8, 2010, just 364 days since he had been drafted.
His debut against the Pirates on June 8, 2010 was nothing short of dominant. He went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits and no walks while striking out 14 batters, one shy of the MLB debut record. Strasburg dazzled in 2010, pitching to a 2.91 ERA with 92 strikeouts, 17 walks and 56 hits allowed in 68 innings before he was shut down with an injury that would later require Tommy John surgery, forever altering his big league career.
While he was able to bounce back from that elbow injury and post several impressive seasons, he has made only eight starts for the Nationals over the last four seasons.
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Paul Skenes-Stephen Strasburg comparison
The hype between Skenes and Strasburg is somewhat comparable. Skenes is considered as close to a sure thing as pitchers get, as was Strasburg when he entered the draft from San Diego State.
There are some more similarities between the two of them beyond just the hype. Skenes stands 6-6, 235 pounds, while Strasburg checks in at 6-5, 239 pounds. As prospects, the two also had blazing fastballs. Skenes can hit triple digits regularly and averages 98 mph (per MLB Pipeline) with the pitch, while Strasburg would hit 100-plus on occasion while sitting in the upper-90s. And most impressively, they combine that velocity with advanced control of the pitch with repeatable deliveries.
The two also have somewhat similar mechanics. Both have easy deliveries, particularly given their size, and throw from a slight 3/4 arm slot. One of the major differences is that Strasburg's delivery always featured risk due to his bringing his arms so far behind his back, while Skenes stays much more compact and closed, keeping everything in front of him.
Then there's the rest of the stuff. They have similar changeups that went largely unused in college because they rarely needed them. Strasburg threw more of a hard curveball, while Skenes throws a wipeout slider.
There's enough there for Strasburg to be considered a reasonable comparison for Skenes, but a better comparison might be Hunter Greene. The velocity, pitch arsenal and delivery are more similar, though Skenes has more movement on his fastball than Greene.
Paul Skenes or Stephen Strasburg?
If Skenes and Strasburg were in the same draft class, it could be a difficult conversation as to which one was the better prospect. As prospects, the two wield triple-digit fastballs with a top-tier breaking pitch that serves as a primary offering. And both command and control their arsenal well advanced for their age.
But part of what needs to be considered when looking at the two is that they are not in the same draft class. Skenes is in the class 14 years later, and the game has changed.
In today's game, triple-digit fastballs are more common, even among starting pitchers. Back in 2009, it was extremely rare for starters to throw that hard.
The hardest average fastball velocity by a starting pitcher in 2009 was Ubaldo Jimenez at 96.3 mph, according to FanGraphs, and the league averaged 92.2 mph. In 2023, the hardest average fastball velocity is Greene at 98.9 mph, and the league averages 94.1 mph. Those are both massive jumps.
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In Strasburg's 2010 debut, he averaged 97.6 mph on his four-seamer — Tommy John surgery took about 1 mph off that pitch when he returned. And he did that while commanding the pitch better than any other pitcher who hit triple-digits.
This is not to take anything away from Skenes, who averages 98 mph on his heater. But Strasburg threw harder relative to the rest of the big leagues at that point than Skenes does relative to 2023 pitchers.
There are other factors as well that lean in Strasburg's favor. Skenes is largely a two-pitch pitcher at the moment, with his fastball and slider being nearly the only two pitches he throws. Though Strasburg leaned heavily on his curveball (25.3 percent in his debut), he still threw a changeup 16.4 percent of the time and a sinker 16.3 percent of the time, helping give him a more diverse repertoire.
Skenes is a phenomenal draft prospect worthy of the hype. But Strasburg threw harder relative to the league, wielded a more diverse arsenal, was nearly the same size and has about the same command and control. Strasburg still remains alone with the title of best pitching prospect in MLB history.