Since withdrawing from the 2020 MLB Draft, Dylan Crews has been eyed as the likely first overall pick in 2023. That stayed the case throughout much of the 2023 college baseball season.
But when MLB commissioner Rob Manfred went to the podium in Seattle on Sunday to announce the Pirates' No. 1 overall selection, Crews' name was not the one announced. Instead, his LSU teammate Paul Skenes had his name called.
From Purple and Gold to Black and Gold. 🖤💛 pic.twitter.com/NfrPmRmN5v
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 10, 2023
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The decision will come as a surprise to many given that Crews has been in the spotlight the past three years in college. He was named the 2023 Golden Spikes Award winner after slashing .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs and 71 walks to 46 strikeouts for the national champion Tigers. Scouts see Crews as having the best hit tool in the class to go with plus power and speed, all while being able to stick in center field or move to right, where he'd be a well above-average defender.
The selection of Skenes has plenty of merit. Many believe he could pitch in the big leagues already. He's armed with a triple-digit fastball and elite slider that might be the best two-pitch combination by a pitcher coming out of colleg since Stephen Strasburg's fastball-curveball pairing.
But why did the Pirates take him over Crews, who was long considered the best prospect in the class? Here's what you need to know.
Why did the Pirates draft Paul Skenes over Dylan Crews?
The simplest answer is often the correct one. And the simple answer is money.
Because Crews has for so long been considered the No. 1 prospect in the class, he can command the highest signing bonus of any of the prospects considered for the top spot. It had been reported leading up to the draft that Crews was seeking a signing bonus of at least $10 million, which would shatter the record of $8.42 million to Spencer Torkelson by the Tigers in 2019.
In the MLB Draft, teams have a set amount of money they can spend on picks without incurring heavy penalties, and each draft position has a recommended bonus amount, also known as a slot. The Pirates have been known in the past for saving money on early picks and then trying to lure later selections with over-slot bonuses. That was the case in 2021 when Pittsburgh drafted Louisville catcher Henry Davis earlier than expected, signed him to an under-slot deal and then took prep pitcher Anthony Solometo with their first pick in the second round. Davis and Solometo are two of Pittsburgh's top prospects, with Davis recently being promoted to the majors.
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Pittsburgh was rumored to be looking to do something similar in 2023. The top five players in the draft were all considered viable 1-1 candidates, and the Pirates were believed to have interest in drafting someone who would take a discount so the team could take a first-round talent with their first pick in the second round.
But picking Skenes is not settling for a player significantly below Crews. As the draft neared, some, including MLB Pipeline, graded Skenes as the better prospect by a narrow margin.
Skenes might be the best pitcher to hit the MLB Draft since Strasburg. He's coming off as dominant a season as has been seen, particularly considering the level of competition. Pitching in the SEC, Skenes posted a 1.69 ERA across 122 2/32 innings with 209 strikeouts and just 20 walks.
His stuff would already play at the MLB level. Skenes hits triple digits regularly with his fastball, and he averaged 98 mph as a junior. He adds in a filthy slider that reaches the upper 80s and is a unhittable when it plays off his fastball. His changeup lags behind his other two offerings because he hasn't needed it as much, but scouts trust he can develop that into a plus offering.
When Skenes was counted on to handle a heavy workload, he was ready. In back-to-back outings against Tennessee and Wake Forest in the College World Series, he threw at least 120 pitches in both games as he helped to will the Tigers to the CWS finals.
The Pirates are now looking at saving money on a pitcher many believe could be an annual Cy Young contender. That is a strong start to their draft, and a justifiable reason to select Skenes ahead of Crews.