NFL 2023 Defensive Player of the Year Odds, Best Bets: Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons represent highest ticket, handle percentages

While the 2023 NFL season won't start for another couple of months, summer always makes for a great time to get in some action on the player awards futures market. One of our favorite awards to bet on early is Defensive Player of the Year. And while bettors have been flooding BetMGM with wagers on reigning DPOY Nick Bosa (+1100), we like multiple defenders better than the 49ers edge rusher.

Of course, nobody can blame the 77.4 percent of DPOY bettors who have smash-bet Bosa. The 25-year-old three-time Pro Bowler enjoyed his best season yet in 2022, notching an NFL-best 18.5 sacks and 48 QB hits to go along with 51 tackles. The younger Bosa bro was so good he even finished sixth in AP MVP voting. 

But J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald — two generational defenders that many would rank top 10 all time — are the only defenders to win multiple DPOY honors in the past 20 years. Many factors probably go into this — voter fatigue, injuries, league parity — but the biggest factor of them all is the fact that the modern NFL has so many incredibly talented defenders and no real LT, Deion, Reggie, or Ray.

MORE 2023 NFL BETTING: MVP odds, best bets, market insights

Our main objective in DPOY betting 50-70 days ahead of the 2023 season kicking off: pinpoint the defenders with the most upside on the best teams (or the teams that stand to make the biggest year-to-year improvements). It sounds simplistic, but it's a tried-and-true strategy.

Bosa played a massive part in the 49ers going 13-4 last season, a three-win improvement from San Francisco's 2021 record. T.J. Watt helped a Steelers team with a miserable offense make the 2021 NFL Playoffs. Aaron Donald helped the Rams survive a stacked NFC West in 2020. Stephon Gilmore had the Patriots ranked No. 1 in 2019 and helped lead them to Super Bowl glory.

To recap, here's our three prerequisites for DPOY betting consideration:

1. Must have a high upside and solid chance of racking up counting stats
2. Must either play for a contender or a team expected to experience sharp positive regression
3. Must have not previously won the award

With those prerequisites in mind, let's take a look at the odds for 2023-24 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and then discuss our best bet, favorite sleeper, and top long shot to win the most coveted defensive award in pigskin. 

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds 2023

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click here for more odds and sign up for BetMGM today!

Parsons and Garrett — both two-time All-Pros — lead the pack as early DPOY favorites. T.J. Watt and Nick Bosa — the 2021 winner and the reigning champ — sit right behind them. What do these core four faves have in common? They're all sack-masters who command the attention of opposing o-lines and terrorize offensive coordinators. 

Pass-rushers have dominated Defensive Player of the Year voting over the past decade, with the victor in 10 of the past 12 years recording 10-plus sacks. The lone exceptions during that timeframe: Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore in 2019, who had a league-leading six interceptions and 20 passes defended; and Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly in 2013, who had 156 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, four picks, and two sacks.

"Sauce" Gardner has the special ingredients needed to win DPOY without racking up sacks. He's easily the most talented young cornerback in the game, with a unique combination of acumen, instincts, and athleticism perhaps not seen in a young cornerback since Deion Sanders. He also plays for the Jets, a squad that has improved mightily this offseason thanks to a strong draft and the addition of four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Sauce checks all the boxes, and we love him at +1100.

The only favorite we like better, in terms of a 'best bet,' is the Cowboys' Micah Parsons. Many consider Parsons the best overall defender in the game, as he has the size, speed, and strength to cover just about every offensive skill player in the game. He's had 13-plus sacks in each of his first two seasons, a span in which he has amassed 56 total QB hits, six total forced fumbles, and two runner-up finishes for Defensive Player of the Year. This could be Micah's year, especially if the Cowboys take a step forward as so many believe they will.

Speaking of teams expected to take a step forward, don't sleep on the Lions' Aidan Hutchinson. He may be 22, but this 6-7, 265-pound behemoth looks as wise a veteran Pro Bowler on the field. If Hutch can add four or five sacks to the 9.5 he totaled in his rookie year — and make some game-changing highlight-reel plays that catch the eye of the media during Detroit's many primetime games this season — he could go from Defensive Rookie of the Year runner-up to DPOY winner. His first opportunity to impress: the season-opener against the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs at Arrowhead. No pressure, big guy.  

Want a good sleeper? Take the Ravens' Roquan Smith at +4000. Between his last half-season with Chicago and his nine games with Baltimore, Smith finished with 169 total tackles and 11 tackles for loss. We also love the Patriots' Matt Judon at +5000, after he broke out with 15.5 sacks and 28 QB hits for Bill Belichick's squad in 2022. And don't forget about the Chargers' Derwin James, the best do-it-all safety in the game when healthy. Speaking of safeties, the Saints' Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu is the best long shot by far at +20000. 

NFL DPOY Odds 2023: BetMGM Market Report

Clearly the betting public agrees with our best bet, as Parsons has garnered over 18 percent of the DPOY handle and appears on almost 12 percent of all DPOY tickets. But the surprising numbers come from Hutchinson, one of our sleepers, who has generated over 20 percent of the DPOY money and nearly 16 percent of all DPOY tickets. So much for sleeper! If Hutch keeps seeing action like this, he will shorten to the +1200 to +1500 range in no time.

Garrett and Watt make a ton of sense as the third-most and fourth-most bet DPOY candidates. They're two of the best pass-rushers in the game, they each have multiple All-Pro selections, and they both play on teams that seem destined for positive regression. We might like Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones — the fifth-most bet defender — even better than Garrett and Watt. Jones exploded with 15.5 sacks last season, the Chiefs constantly get national airtime, and Kansas City's D has fewer complementary pieces around Jones than Garrett and Watt enjoy in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

How is Sauce getting so little love? After running away with Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and finishing eighth in DPOY voting last year, the Jets' cornerback has attracted just over three percent of the ticket and handle so far this year. Perhaps bettors are just hoping his odds will lengthen so they can get better value on him later. In the meantime, it seems like many are going with our strategy of attacking sleepers like Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard, and the aforementioned Smith and Judon. 

Futures betting — especially Defensive Player of the Year — is fluid. The market often gets dictated by the action, with sportsbooks like BetMGM always looking to curb their liabilities and influence shifts in the ticket and handle percentages. What's important for us as bettors is to recognize the shifts, pinpoint the values when they come, and never shy away from the prerequisites that comprise our DPOY betting strategy. We're playing the long game here — and it's not for everyone — but the reward of cashing in big on a futures bet is a tough feeling to beat in sports betting.