Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams is the overwhelming favorite to win college football's most-prestigious individual award in 2023 – even if history tells us it is much more complicated than that.
Williams (+500) is the 11th player to try to win a second Heisman Trophy since Ohio State's Archie Griffin won the award in back-to-back seasons in 1974-75.
In the College Football Playoff era, Florida State's Jameis Winston and Alabama's Bryce Young tried to repeat. Both finished sixth in the voting.
Will Williams make history in 2023? Sporting News looks at the current Heisman Trophy odds, Williams' path to a second Heisman and the best contenders heading into this season:
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2023 Heisman Odds
Here are the preseason Heisman Trophy odds according to BetMGM.com. A total of five players have odds of +1400 or less, including Williams (+500), Florida State's Jordan Travis (+1000), North Carolina's Drake May (+1400), Texas' Quinn Ewers (+1400) and Notre Dame's Sam Hartman (+1400).
Here are players with odds of +5000 or less:
| PLAYER | POS | SCHOOL | ODDS |
| Caleb Williams | QB | USC | +500 |
| Jordan Travis | QB | Florida State | +1000 |
| Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina | +1400 |
| Quinn Ewers | QB | Texas | +1400 |
| Sam Hartman | QB | Notre Dame | +1400 |
| Bo Nix | QB | Oregon | +1600 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU | +1600 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington | +1600 |
| Cade Klubnik | QB | Clemson | +1600 |
| Carson Beck | QB | Georgia | +2000 |
| Joe Milton | QB | Tennessee | +2000 |
| Drew Allar | QB | Penn State | +2500 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | Michigan | +2500 |
| Kyle McCord | QB | Ohio State | +2500 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State | +2500 |
| Blake Corum | RB | Michigan | +3000 |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | Oklahoma | +3500 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Ohio State | +4000 |
| Brock Vandagriff | QB | Georgia | +5000 |
| Cam Rising | QB | Utah | +5000 |
| Tyler Buchner | QB | Alabama | +5000 |
| Ty Simpson | QB | Alabama | +5000 |
Caleb Williams' Heisman odds
Why is Williams such a heavy favorite?
Williams passed for 4,537 yards and 42 TDs with five interceptions. He totaled an FBS-best 52 TDs and was a fit with Lincoln Riley at USC. Riley has now produced three Heisman Trophy winners between Oklahoma and USC, and he brought on former NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive analyst this offseason.
Williams should have more than enough to produce another prolific stat line in 2023. Will he stay in the hunt the whole season? October features matchups against Notre Dame and Utah, and November closes with a three-game stretch against Washington, Oregon and UCLA.
If Williams stays healthy, then he will be in the mix.
Winning the award, however, is difficult. A total of 10 Heisman Trophy winners have returned for another run since Griffin won the award twice for the Buckeyes. Florida's Tim Tebow had two chances in 2008 and 2009 after winning the award as a sophomore in 2007. Here is a look at how those returning Heisman Trophy winners fared when they went for the repeat:
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| YEAR | PLAYER | PLACE | STATS | WINNER |
| 1979 | Billy Sims | 2nd | 224 carries, 1,506 yards, 22 TDs | Charles White |
| 1991 | Ty Detmer | 3rd | 4,031 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs | Desmond Howard |
| 2004 | Jason White | 3rd | 3,205 yards, 35 TDs, 9 INTs | Matt Leinart |
| 2005 | Matt Leinart | 3rd | 3,815 yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs | Reggie Bush |
| 2008 | Tim Tebow | 3rd | 2,746 yards, 30 TDs, 4 INTs | Sam Bradford |
| 2009 | Tim Tebow | 5th | 2,895 yards, 21 TDs, 5 INTs | Mark Ingram |
| 2009 | Sam Bradford | na | 562 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs | Mark Ingram |
| 2010 | Mark Ingram | na | 158 carries, 875 yards, 21 TDs | Cam Newton |
| 2013 | Johnny Manziel | 5th | 4,114 yards, 37 TDs, 13 INTs | Jameis Winston |
| 2014 | Jameis Winston | 6th | 3,907 yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs | Marcus Mariota |
| 2022 | Bryce Young | 6th | 3,328 yards, 32 TDs, 5 INTs | Caleb Williams |
A College Football Playoff run could put Williams over the top. Since the CFP started in 2014, seven of the nine Heisman Trophy winners played in the College Football Playoff that season. Louisville's Lamar Jackson (2016) and Williams last year are the exceptions.
A total of 22 of the 33 Heisman Trophy finalists since 2014 were in the CFP that season. If Williams leads USC to the CFP and breaks a Pac-12 drought that extends back to 2016, then he will have a chance.
2023 Early Heisman Trophy contenders
Here is a look at some of the top competition for Williams heading into the 2023 season:
Top contender: Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State (+1000)
This isn't a surprise. Travis has a blend of playmaking ability that matches the deep vertical passing game – he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt last season – with elusive skill outside the pocket – he also averaged 5.1 yards per carry. The addition of Michigan State receiver Keon Coleman opposite Johnny Wilson means Travis has the right supporting cast, and the opener against LSU and Jayden Daniels (+1600) will be an early chance to make a Heisman statement.
Top next-level contender: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (+1400)
Williams also is the presumed No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Maye will be in that conversation all the way until April. Maye finished 10th in the Heisman voting last season after a breakout season in which he totaled 45 TDs for the Tar Heels. The problem with the Heisman is Maye would have outdo those stats and lead North Carolina to an ACC championship this time. The NFL Draft conversation will continue no matter what.
Top contender with upside: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (+1400)
It's a pretty simple narrative here. If Ewers leads Texas to an upset against Alabama on Sept. 9 – which almost happened last season despite him leaving the game with an injury – then he would be the Heisman favorite through the Big 12 season. If the Longhorns were to somehow finally live up to the hype, then Ewers would be in New York with a chance to win.
Top first-year transfer: Sam Hartman, QB, Notre Dame
Williams was the top transfer quarterback on this list last season. Hartman steps up to a larger stage with the Irish. He threw an ACC record 110 TDs and notched 45 starts at Wake Forest. He's experienced, and he could be this year's version of Georgia's Stetson Bennett with the voters. Hartman also has a huge September game against Ohio State on Sept. 23.
Top value pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (+1600)
You could also go with Oregon's Bo Nix (+1600) with the same odds. Those are the two Pac-12 quarterbacks with the statistical credentials that will go head-to-head with Williams this season on the field. Penix led the nation with 364.1 yards of total offense last season and is throwing to a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The Nov. 4 showdown at USC should be amazing.
Top first-year starter: Joe Milton, QB, Tennessee (+2000)
Hendon Hooker finished fifth in the Heisman voting last season, and he would have finished higher if he didn't suffer a torn ACL in his left knee. Milton takes over in Josh Heupel's wide-open offense. Milton is going to generate hype because of his arm strength, but his accuracy will determine how long he stays in this race.
Top receiver: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State (+2500)
Harrison Jr. could make a DeVonta Smith-like run to the Heisman Trophy. He's arguably just as dominant as Caleb Williams at a different position, and he showed that with 77 catches for 1,263 yards and 14 TDs as a sophomore. He also likely will have high school teammate Kyle McCord at quarterback. Harrison still has to share with several other NFL-caliber options in Ohio State's offense. Will he get enough touches to get to New York?
Top running back: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (+3000)
It's the same issue with Corum, who is coming off knee surgery that cut short a brilliant 2022 season in which he finished seventh in the Heisman voting. Corum rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 TDs, and he surprised by returning to school. Still, he's coming off a major injury – and that could lead to more of a split with Donovan Edwards at the backfield throughout the regular season.
Top longshot: Connor Weigman, QB, Texas A&M (+6500)
Weigman showed promise at the end of last season, and the Aggies made the all-in hire of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. If Jimbo Fisher finally breaks through the SEC West – and Texas A&M was close to that in 2020 – then the quarterback with a five-star pedigree will be a huge reason why.
Top defensive player: Harold Perkins, LB, LSU (+15000)
Defensive players have a ceiling of being a finalist, which was the case with Ohio State's Chase Young (2019) and Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson (2021). Alabama's Will Anderson was never a finalist. Perkins has shown flashes of dominance, but he would need to double his sack total from last season of 7.5 to get in the conversation.
Top freshman: Justice Haynes, RB, Alabama (+15000)
Hey, three running backs have won the Heisman this century. Reggie Bush (2005) had to vacate the award, but the next two were Alabama running backs in Mark Ingram (2009) and Derrick Henry (2015). This might be a year early for Haynes, a talented freshman who will be in that conversation soon enough.