The Dodgers had a tough start to the season, battling myriad injuries and bullpen adversity. They started the campaign with a 10-11 record and lost 18 of 30 games between May 16 and June 18. And yet, they just closed the book on the first half of the season with a 51-38 record, a half game behind the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West. And they are as good a bet right now as any team in baseball not named the Atlanta Braves.
It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows for Los Angeles, but Dave Roberts' guys have been resilient. When someone goes down, another player steps up. When the injury bug stings the rotation, the top half of the offense lends run support. When the youngsters falter, the veterans like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, and David Peralta catch fire.
Most of the Dodgers' rotation has been hurt at some point of the season, including Dustin May with a season-ending elbow injury in May, Tony Gonsolin with an ankle injury for the entirety of April, Julio Urias with a hamstring strain for six weeks between May and June, and now Clayton Kershaw with an inflamed shoulder. And only four MLB bullpens have allowed more earned runs than the Dodgers' 170: Oakland, Colorado, Kansas City, and Washington.
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But still, the Dodgers go into the All-Star break having won four consecutive games, five of their past six, and 12 of 17. They sit just a half-game behind the Diamondbacks, who at one point held a sizable lead in the NL West. And while some may see Arizona as a strong value bet to win the West at +350, we're fading the D-backs more than any other current division-leader in the bigs.
The Dodgers are on a warpath — winning seven of their past 10 games by a combined score of 60-23. The rest of the West in that span has gone a combined 15-25. And the Diamondbacks have survived multiple scares with NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll's surgically-repaired shoulder, which has started to look like a ticking time-bomb of an injury. One more big whiff, hard headfirst slide, or crash into the center field wall, and the D-backs All-Star could be watching from the sidelines while the Reds' Elly De La Cruz overtakes the ROY race.
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As for the NL West race, the Dodgers have already ballooned from -170 favorites on BetMGM last week to -250 now. That's an over 70 percent implied win probability, for those not fluent in odds speak. The value has all but evaporated in Los Angeles's division odds — you would need to bet $200 for the chance to win an $80 profit — but we would still rather bet the Dodgers at -250 than the D-backs at +350, the Giants at +600, or even a modest bet on the reeling Padres at +2500.
You could also make the argument that L.A. serves as a better bet than Atlanta to win the NLCS. Sure, the Braves have been historically good all season. MVP favorite Ronald Acuña Jr. has been lightning in a bottle, hurtling towards MLB's first 40-70 season. Matt Olson has been nuclear, leading the NL in home runs (29) and RBIs (71). And both Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder have been machines atop Atlanta's rotation, with Strider leading the majors in strikeouts (166) and Elder pacing the bigs in ERA (2.45).
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But still, +150 to win the NL? While the Dodgers are +225 despite injuries? Let's not forget the Braves got gentleman swept by the Phillies 3-1 last postseason, Risking $100 for the chance to net $150 seems like a fool's errand in a futures market — especially considering it's conceivable the Braves have reached their regular-season peak, while the Dodgers may very well be just getting started.
As the temperature gets warmer, we expect the Dodgers to get stronger and healthier. And there's no doubt in our minds the Los Angeles executives will be looking at this scorching-hot stretch leading into the All-Star break and saying "Buy, buy buy!" ahead of the August 1 MLB trade deadline. Corbin Burnes, Mitch Keller, Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez — nobody will be considered too rich for the Dodgers' blood as they pursue the NL's top seed in the second half.
The mid-to-late summer stretch and postseason run is when the experienced veterans and ice-in-the-veins clutch performers like Betts, Freeman, and Martinez really pay off. We've already seen heroics from these sluggers during this most recent torrid stretch — Betts now has 26 homers, a franchise-record 10 of which have been leadoff jacks. Freeman has 114 hits and an MLB-best 31 doubles, and he's on pace for a 30-20 season. Martinez has 22 round-trippers, six more than he had all season with Boston last year. Max Muncy, despite an average below the Mendoza line, has 21 jacks of his own.
And L.A.'s pitching has improved mightily over this most recent stretch. Julio Urias has finally started to look more like himself. Tony Gonsolin has emerged as a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Rookies Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan have flashed moments of brilliance despite needing to be called up earlier than the organization expected due to the rash of injuries. If Kershaw can come back sooner than later and L.A. makes a move or two to add a rotational cog and acquire bullpen help, the Dodgers will not just be contenders in the NLCS — they will be contenders at +500 to win the World Series.
We're putting a healthy amount of our futures chips on the Dodgers to win the NL West, and we may also put modest wagers on them coming out of the NLCS and winning their second World Series in three years. But for now, we will just enjoy the five run line wins Los Angeles has netted us over its past six games, and continue smash-betting the Dodgers game in and game out after the All-Star break. They're just getting started, and our bankrolls are ready to come along for the ride.