Who will win the Home Run Derby? Odds, betting favorites, best bets for MLB's 2023 contest

Marine layer be damned, get ready to see some dingers in Seattle.

Although MLB's top home run hitter in Shohei Ohtani won't be participating in this year's Home Run Derby, some of baseball's best power hitters will be on display. Pete Alonso is looking for his third career win against the likes of Luis Robert and 2022 breakout derby star Julio Rodriguez.

Other participants include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. making his return, Adolis Garcia of the Rangers, Randy Arozarena of the Rays, Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, and Adley Rutschman of the Orioles.

It's a competitive field with a lot to live up to. Juan Soto won last year's event at Dodger Stadium with 19 home runs against Rodriguez's 18, with Albert Pujols making a surprising appearance against Kyle Schwarber and Soto (though he lost to the latter 16-15).

Can Alonso reclaim the throne? He would be the second three-time winner in MLB history, fittingly joining Mariners legend Ken Griffey Jr. Alonso is already in rare company as one of four players to win multiple Home Run Derbies, joining Griffey, Prince Fielder, and Yoenis Cespedes.

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It's no surprise, then, that he is the odds-on favorite to win this year. The field has some legitimate challengers, but with Soto not participating this year, Alonso is now the bat to beat.

Home Run Derby odds 2023

All odds courtesy of Bet MGM.

Eight players are participating in the 2023 Home Run Derby, and Alonso is leading the pack in odds. He has 25 home runs through June 6, tied with Robert for third-most in the league behind Ohtani (31) and Atlanta's Matt Olson (29). He enters with +275 odds of winning.

Robert and Guerrero are next at +400 to win, with Robert coming in at 25 home runs and Guerrero at 13 with a legendary showing in the 2019 derby to bolster his odds. Garcia and Rodriguez are also in the conversation at +500 and +550, respectively.

Longshots to win include Arozarena (+900), Betts (+1000) and Rutschman (+2000). 

Home Run Derby picks 2023

Best picks to win 2023 Home Run Derby

Adolis Garcia (+500) Garcia deserves a good, hard look as the potential winner of this year's Derby. The Rangers outfielder has a propensity to hit rockets, and his weakness -- strikeouts on chases -- is a non-factor in the batting practice setting.

Garcia is in MLB's 91st percentile in hard hit percentage, 93rd percentile in barrel percentage, and 91st percentile in average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

When you hit the ball as hard as Garcia does, it's hard to pick against him in this type of exhibition. In addition, if he gets through Arozarena in the first round, he would take on the winner of Adley Rutschman and Luis Robert. That seems more doable than the winner of Alonso vs. Rodriguez.

Julio Rodriguez (+550) Rodriguez isn't having an incredible sophomore season in Seattle, but he's still absolutely scorching balls when he hits them. Similar to Garcia, he has a chasing problem. And similar to Garcia, when he gets a hold of a ball, he's smoking it.

Rodriguez is hardly an unknown quantity in this setting. He'll be taking on Alonso in the first round of this year's Derby after beating him 31-23 in Round 2 last year. Although Rodriguez lost to Soto in the finals, if he can get through Alonso and the winner of Betts-Guerrero, he has a real shot against anyone on the other side.

Rodriguez hit a total of 81 homers in last year's showcase, and in his home ballpark, he has a chance to replicate that success. It won't be easy against this group, but to write him off despite being a seven seed would be folly. Look at what Pujols did last year as the No. 8.

Best prop bets for the 2023 Home Run Derby

Top prop bets will be posted as they become available.

Winning player, National League (+225): Want to bet Alonso while taking a flier on Betts? This is the way to do it. The National League only has two representatives in the Home Run Derby this year to the AL's six, so the books are just playing the numbers here. Breaking it down further: Both of those NL players are on one side of the bracket. So there's at least a chance one of them makes the final round, where any number of things can happen.

Over 274.5 home runs (-115): The over/under is set at 274.5 home runs. There haven't been fewer than 291 home runs in a Derby since 2018, and with names like Rodriguez and Guerrero swinging, there could be some huge numbers put up this year. The total may seem high, but players can reach it pretty quickly.

How many home runs will be hit in the 2023 Home Run Derby?

The over/under for home runs is set at 274.5 home runs, which means Vegas is "capping" the number at 275. Last year, 291 home runs were hit in Dodger Stadium. T-Mobile Park is fairly neutral for power, with a park factor of 98 since 2021, so that shouldn't bat the ball down too much.