Caitlin Clark WNBA Draft projection: Why Iowa March Madness sensation is a lock to be the top pick in 2024

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Caitlin Clark celebrates after defeating Louisville in the Elite Eight.
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Caitlin Clark's heroic efforts in leading Iowa to the national championship game have catapulted her beyond typical superstar status. It's not every day someone drops 40 in back-to-back games, the second of which knocked out an undefeated defending national champion in the Final Four

While superstars come and go on March Madness's biggest stage, Clark's legendary performance transcends even the highest bars reserved for the biggest stars. Clark isn't just a star, she's an entire solar system.

And while you might think Clark's time at Iowa is coming to an end on the heels of what could become the greatest scoring performance in women's college basketball history, the WNBA will have to wait one more year due to an NCAA rule that's keeping her out of this year's draft class.

The WNBA's loss is college basketball's gain. Clark will likely be the No. 1 overall selection in the 2024 WNBA Draft.

MORE: Clark in verge of breaking iconic Sheryl Swoopes record

Matter of fact, remove likely; she will be.

We know about the logo 3s and the uncanny ways Clark has taken over college basketball, but will that translate to the pros?

Spoiler alert! It will and here's why. 

Why Caitlin Clark is a lock to be a top pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft

Clark's ability to get her shot off seemingly at will is unlike anything we've seen at the college level. Her ability to break defenders down off the bounce, create space with lethal stepbacks and toy with opponents in pick-and-rolls has made her nearly unguardable.

According to Her Hoop Stats, Clark is averaging 1.25 points per scoring attempt, which is points scored per shot or free throw attempt. She ranks in the 90th percentile. For better context, that number is greater than the last two No. 1 overall picks in the WNBA Draft, Rhyne Howard's 1.12 and Charli Collier's 1.17, and on par with the 1.26 of Sabrina Ionescu, the No. 1 overall pick in 2020.

The scary part is Clark still has another year of college basketball to develop even more weapons to increase that output.

MORE: What to know about the 2023 Women's Final Four

Despite the elite shot creation and shot-making ability Clark displays on a nightly basis, she has found ways to keep her teammates involved. There's something to be said about having a neon green light, and knowing you can get any look you want at any point and time, and not abusing it.

For evidence of that, look no further than her 49.2 percent assist rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile. That number is up from 43.3 percent last season, which also ranked in the 100th percentile.

There's no question about Clark's ability to score. She's a bona fide bucket, but her playmaking is what will make her intriguing at the next level. She has proven this season that she can be the centerpiece of any team and can elevate those around her.

Area where she needs to improve

With every prospect, there's room for improvement. Clark is no different. While her offensive game has few holes, the defensive side is where she'll need to improve in the pros.

She has shown in her college career that she's willing to put the work in, and she'll be far from a liability.

As a freshman, Clark posted a defensive rating of 105.5. This season, her defensive rating is 89.7, which ranks in the 69th percentile according to Her Hoop Stats. It's far from the upper echelon in college basketball, but given the pace Iowa likes to play at, the opposing team will score points.

Clark added eight pounds ahead of her junior season. To withstand the rigors of a pro season, she may have to add even more to her frame. Pro teams are going to run her through a healthy diet of pick-and-rolls. If she's able to handle the impact and keep ticking, then she'll be the all-star everyone expects her to be.

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Carlan Gay is a deputy editor at The Sporting News.
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