There are more than 1,000 Division I basketball players in the NCAA transfer portal, and that is where the attention of those who follow this game closest will be focused until all those names more or less are gone.
There’s another – in many cases, more important – source of talent for next season’s aspiring Final Four entrants that will gain less attention but might be more consequential:
Which players will be departing early for the NBA Draft?
MORE: Latest Sporting News NBA Mock Draft
We’re not talking about the obvious guys, Gradey Dick of Kansas and Cason Wallace of Kentucky, who have known pretty much since their debut at the Champions Classic in November there would be room for their names in the lottery portion of the 2023 draft. We’re talking about the guys who might think they’re ready for round 1, but aren’t, or the guys that might be first-rounders but believe they can do better.
Where would Michigan State have been this weekend had Max Christie not squandered his first-round potential on becoming a second-round pick? Might they have been here in Houston with him serving as a genuine first option for the Spartans offense instead of bouncing between the G League and the end of the Lakers’ bench?
What of Michigan, which had two players, Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, who had first-round talent become second-rounders. They certainly would have been a tournament team if one or both had returned, maybe even one with a prominent seed.
Kendall Brown played six NBA games and 10 in the G League before an injury put him on the sideline in February. Baylor surely could have used him in fighting through its brutal Big 12 schedule.
The decisions of these players surely will impact how the 2023-24 season plays out:
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut
7-2 center
Overview: Clingan is the rare young big man whose physical attributes appear to fit the modern NBA game. There are college centers who years ago would have been coveted top-10 picks who now find themselves unable to attract the affection of league scouts. And then there is Clingan, who has averaged only 13 minutes per game but shown the mobility to suggest he can defend the perimeter and the physical prowess along the baseline that eventually will allow him to play with the big men of the League.
Kyle Irving, draft analyst for the Sporting News, contends Clingan will be a better first-round prospect in 2024 than this June. There is the issue, though, of how his role could or would change if junior big man Adama Sanogo returns for another season at UConn. Sanogo has two seasons of eligibility available to him and his projections generally are in the second-round range. That’s unlikely to change, so Sanogo might want to take his shot this year.
NBA MOCK DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT: UConn's Donovan Clingan
Adem Bona, UCLA
6-10 center
Overview: Many projections have Adem Bona on the border between Round 1 and Round 2, and don’t ever believe that life on one side of that border isn’t way better than the other. Bona showed promise throughout his freshman season, the ability to learn and potentially become a serious pro with more development.
And he showed a really impressive degree of toughness to attempt to play in the NCAA Tournament after injuring his shoulder in the Pac-12 championship game. Had he not again felt discomfort during a second-round game against Northwestern and been able to continue, the Bruins might have made it past Gonzaga and into the Elite Eight.
If Bona returns, along with some other key players, the Bruins could have the makings of a special team in 2024.
MORE: UCLA checks in at No. 2 in 'way-too-early' top 25
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
7-0 center
You will not find many, if any, who believe Kalkbrenner will become a first-round pick in 2023. It would not be problematic at all for him to go through the early entry process and get himself invited to this year’s combine and see what teams think of him first-hand.
He is a junior with two more years of eligibility available if he wishes, and his entire Creighton group could return and take a run at the Final Four after coming so close this month. There is the potential for the Bluejays to be one of the top teams in Division I next season. Kalkbrenner could continue to develop his strength and add variety to his game with another season at Creighton.
Azoulas Tubelis, Arizona
6-11 power forward
Most of the projections of Tubelis’ value in the 2023 draft has him placed in the second round. As with Kalkbrenner, that’s a little different for a player in his position, three years into his D-I career, than it is for a freshman who hasn’t played a ton of college basketball.
Tubelis was a second-team All-American for the Sporting News this season. He’s a terrific player, and his return could again give the Wildcats one of the most overwhelming 1-2 interior combinations. Tubelis and 7-footer Oumar Ballo were a fantastic tandem through much of this past season.
Tubelis still could use growth as a perimeter shooter. He attempted 42 three-pointers in 26 games as a freshman, just 32 in 35 games this season. He made a career-best 31.3 percent this year. It would help him greatly to grow in this area if he wants to become an NBA regular.
MORE: The Sporting News 2022-23 All-America team
Jordan Walsh, Arkansas
6-7 shooting guard
The final impression Walsh left upon the 22-23 season was not his best. He scored only 2 points on 1-of-5 shooting in a lopsided loss to Connecticut in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. Is that why he should consider returning for another season? No. One game is not decisive for a player or a scout. There is so much he can gain, though, given the breadth of his game with the obvious weakness of an underdeveloped perimeter shooting touch.
He is an exceptional defender, energy provider and “glue guy,” but all of that will be much more valuable if he works to become a significant perimeter shooter. He was 20-of-72 (27.8 percent) as a freshman, which means he’s not uncomfortable taking them. He needs to become more comfortable making them.
A player with his length, dynamism and approach who also can present himself as a capable perimeter shooter would be looking at a 10-year career (or more) in the league. And Arkansas would have another shot at playing into the second weekend in 2024.
Chris Livingston, Kentucky
6-6 small forward
Can you imagine what it might mean to the Wildcats if they can have a player with Livingston’s no-ego style to help lead their top-ranked 2023 recruiting class through next season?
Livingston has the A-plus level dynamism and energy level to be a lottery-level selection, but his game still is developing in terms of shot creation, ballhandling and shooting touch. He was 18-of-59 (30.5 percent) on 3-pointers as a freshman. He made some very important shots for the Wildcats as they turned around a declining season to enter the NCAA Tournament and advance to the round of 32, but the NBA will want someone to do that more regularly.
Of all the players on the UK roster who have the option to return, it is most important for UK to keep him as a Wildcat. Indeed, even more so than All-American Oscar Tshiebwe.
Zach Edey, Purdue
7-4 center
There is a widespread belief his return to the Boilers will be automatic, but Edey has made it clear he doesn’t want anyone making this decision for him.
So long as he hasn’t issued any declarations, it’s obvious he needs to be included on this list. Edey won every major player of the year award – from the Sporting News, Naismith, Associated Press, the NABC – and was a unanimous All-American. He led Purdue to the Big Ten Tournament and regular-season championships.
It is likely someone either would draft Edey at some point in the second round or immediately rush to sign him as an undrafted free agent. But the money almost certainly would be better in the Name/Image/Likeness market. And he’d have the opportunity to end his career at Purdue with something other than the disappointing first-round upset against Fairleigh Dickinson.
NBA MOCK DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT: Purdue's Zach Edey