There wasn't a ton of heat on Rhett Lowder when he was coming out of high school. But Wake Forest assistant coach Bill Cilento had been told by North Carolina travel ball coach Don Hutchins to take an extra good look at the late-blooming right-hander.
The long-haired, 6-3, 165-pounder from Albemarle, N.C., had received a few Division I offers, though largely from mid-major programs, according to The Athletic. He had offers in hand from Appalachian State, Campbell and UNC Wilmington as he was heading into his senior year.
Hutchins told Cilento that if Wake Forest took Lowder, "he's going to be a first-team All-ACC pitcher," Cilento recalls.
"We had seen him pitch three or four times," Wake Forest head coach Tom Walter said. "We liked him, but it wasn't like we had to have him. Don Hutchins said, 'I'll never send you another player if you don't take this guy. This guy is going to be as good as any guy I've had.' And he's had some major leaguers.
"So we took him, obviously, and it was the greatest decision we ever made."
MLB DRAFT: Top 100 big board | Mock draft
It didn't come right away for Lowder. He struggled as a freshman, posting a 6.12 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts). He showed flashes, striking out 78 in 67 2/3 innings of work, but the pieces weren't all in place.
They finally came together in 2022. Lowder emerged as Wake Forest's ace, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 99 1/3 innings with 105 strikeouts and just 26 walks. He not only was an All-ACC pitcher, but he also was named the ACC Pitcher of the Year and a unanimous All-American.
Somehow, he wasn't done getting better. Lowder took his game to a higher level in 2023. Lowder finished his junior year with a perfect 15-0 record, a 1.87 ERA and 143 strikeouts to just 24 walks in 120.1 innings. Lowder earned his second ACC Pitcher of the Year honor, along with another first-team All-ACC selection. This year, he was named a National Pitcher of the Year finalist as well.
MORE: Explaining MLB draft from total rounds to slot values and more
The Sporting News looks at what makes Lowder so special as a pitcher, and predicts how high he can expect to go when his name is called in the 2023 MLB Draft.
Rhett Lowder scouting report
Lowder has dominated the college ranks, but not because of overpowering stuff.
He can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, but the pitch sits in the mid-90s. It acts almost like a sinker and has been used to pitch to contact. Lowder pairs that offering with a sweeping slider that is an out pitch against right-handed hitters. He'll typically throw it in the low to mid-80s.
Lowder's bread and butter, however, is his changeup. The pitch has been praised by some as one of the best secondary offerings in college baseball and the best "cambio" in the current draft class. It combines heavy fading action with mid-80s velocity, giving him a double-digit gap between it and the heater. The pitch is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate.
What makes Lowder really dominant is how he commands his arsenal. Lowder is the most polished pitcher in the 2023 class, with advanced control of his three pitches. He can spot his fastball and he knows how to mix in his slider and changeup off it to maximize effectiveness.
54 seconds of Rhett Lowder's Filthy Stuff. 😷 pic.twitter.com/frQfrnJ7vq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 25, 2023
Lowder attacks the strike zone and is aware of how to pitch in given situations.
"The thing about Rhett is, if we have a lead and he just needs to go out there and get quick outs and get soft contact and pitch deep into the game and keep his pitch count down, then that’s what he does," Walter told The Charlotte Observer. "But if he needs to ramp up his stuff and get punchouts and get some momentum in our dugout, he can do that, too."
Lowder can best be described as a pitcher with a high floor and low to medium ceiling. His delivery is unorthodox, which has caused concern that it could lead to inconsistency, even if he has been able to repeat his delivery. And given Wake Forest's advanced pitching lab and his refined arsenal, there are questions about how much more he can develop, or if he is a mostly finished product with little to project.
MORE: College World Series bracket, schedule
Rhett Lowder MLB comp
The most obvious comparison that has been made to Lowder is Mike Clevinger. They're both long-haired pitchers with unorthodox deliveries. The arsenals are similar as well, though Clevinger also mixes in a curveball and a cutter.
"Rhett Lowder" vs. Mike Clevinger pic.twitter.com/TyVCCPrYy3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 4, 2022
But Clevinger's changeup has always been more of an option rather than an out pitch. Clevinger has largely been a fastball-slider pitcher.
We have Logan Webb as Lowder's top comparison. As a prospect, Webb's changeup lagged behind his fastball and slider, but as he has ascended in the majors, the change has become not only his best pitch, but also one of the league's best off-speed pitches. This year, his changeup is tied with Merrill Kelly's for best by run value at minus-10. Last year, the pitch was sixth.
Like Lowder, Webb has a three-pitch mix of a sinking fastball, slider and changeup, with his slider being his least-used pitch. Over time, Webb's command and control have made drastic strides, to the point where he rarely hands out a free pass and doesn't often make mistakes in the zone. Webb doesn't rack up gaudy strikeout numbers, but he still gets plenty of whiffs because he knows how to keep hitters off balance.
The optimal version of Lowder would look something like the current iteration of Webb: a reliable No. 2 starter whose advanced command keeps hitters off balance enough to make up for a lack of strikeout stuff.
Where will Rhett Lowder be drafted?
There is an expectation that Lowder will be the second or third collegiate pitcher off the board. LSU's Paul Skenes is expected to be the first pitcher drafted, and he's likely to go in the top five as part of a group of clear top prospects that includes Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Walter Jenkins and Max Clark.
Lowder could go as high as No. 5 to the Twins, which would likely make him the second college pitcher off the board. If he goes later, it's possible the only other college pitcher to be drafted ahead of him will be Tennessee's Chase Dollander, who is nearly Lowder's opposite with explosive stuff but also more control issues.
Most prognosticators expect Lowder to go in the top 10. Sporting News has him going seventh to the Reds.
- Sporting News: No. 7 to the Reds
- Baseball America: No. 5 to the Twins
- The Athletic: No. 9 to the Rockies
- MLB Pipeline: No. 7 to the Reds