MLB Draft scout grading scale, explained: What a five-tool player is and what the 20-80 scale means

Author Photo
(C)Getty Images

The MLB Draft is handled very differently than other drafts, so it's only fitting the terminology is different as well.

Baseball's way of evaluating prospects evokes the scientific method. Branch Rickey, the man who signed Jackie Robinson, is credited with inventing baseball's grade scale, which ranges from 20 to 80. On said scale, 50 is league average. The scale then moves up in increments away from the median.

The five tools that are graded for an MLB positional prospect are hitting, power, running, fielding, and throwing. These are the five buckets scouts put every baseball skill into, and they each encompass a different set of skills. Pitchers, meanwhile, are graded on their different pitches. Different teams do different things, but common practice now is there is a grade for the pitch itself (velocity, movement, etc.) and the command of the pitch.

That bleeds into another difficult part of talking about the scale: Every team has its own in-house recipe regarding how it grades players. Although there is a uniform scale, each team has its own quirks on how players are evaluated. That means everything is subject to some degree of subjectivity.

What isn't subjective is what average means. A 50-grade player is expected to produce at league-average in that category when he "arrives" to the majors.

MORE: LSU baseball coach opens up about projected top picks

Other parts of the scale include 60, which is considered "plus," 70, or "plus plus," and 80, which is called "elite" or simply "80-grade."

A player who demonstrates all of these traits at a plus or higher level can be considered a five-tool player, baseball's unicorn. This is an incredibly difficult zenith to get to, as working on one skill often means sacrificing in another. Baseball has quite a few four-tool guys, but the five-tool player means more than "looks really good in a lot of ways."

Here is how baseball players are evaluated, and what all of the jargon fans will hear during the MLB Draft means.

What is the MLB scouting scale?

Credited to Rickey Branch, the MLB scouting scale is a grading system that deviates out from 50. It can go as high as 80 or as low as 20.

A player who is graded 50 at something is expected to produce at league average, whereas any points above or below 50 are a standard deviation from the average.

To crystallize what that means, here's a look at what the scale would look like using 2022's numbers for the five universal tools among qualified players. Running is going to be graded by average time to first, fielding by outs above average (with zero as the average, naturally), and throwing by arm strength. Median averages will be used.

Grade Range Hitting Power Running Fielding Throwing
80 80 .318+ 40+ 4.15 seconds 10-12 97 mph +
70 Plus Plus .298 30-35 4.25 seconds 7-9 94 mph
60 Plus .278 23-27 4.35 seconds 4-6 91 mph
55 Above Average .268 19-22 4.4 seconds 1-3 88 mph
50 Average .258 15-18 4.45 seconds 0 85 mph
45 Fringe Average .248 12-15 4.5 seconds -1 to -3 82 mph
40 Below Average .238 8-12 4.55 seconds -4 to -6 79 mph
30 Poor .218 5-8 4.65 seconds -7 to -9 76 mph
20 Basement .198 3-5 4.75 seconds -10 to -12 73 mph

Why does MLB use the 20-80 scale

MLB uses 20 to 80 as its scale because, the way scouts figure, 99.7 percent of players are going to fall within the standard deviation of 30 points. Therefore, if a player is more than 30 percent outside of the 50 grade, he is considered an outlier.

A 0 to 100 scale, therefore, would be pointless, as so few players would end up in the 0, 10, 90, and 100 marks they would just be dead weight on a clipboard.

Does MLB use 65 or 75 grades?

MLB scouts generally frown upon using 65 or 75 grades as half measures. Because these are projections, there is a lot of room for minutia, but front offices only care about the broad strokes. Is a player plus or is he plus plus? Is he plus plus or is he 80?

MLB scouting is a delicate process, but building a team is a different ballgame altogether. An MLB president of ops isn't going to care if a player is going to hit .280 or .290. He's going to care how much that player can help his team. In other words, scouts want fellow scouts to make tough calls, not try to figure out exactly where a player's average or power is going to fall.

How are pitchers graded?

The way pitchers are graded is a lot more straightforward than position players in some ways, and more mind-bogglingly confusing in others.

While velocity and movement are simple enough to quantify, command is tougher. A lot goes into command. A middle-middle strike isn't the same as painting the corner, and a strike that misses the catcher's glove isn't the same as zone pitching.

MORE: Final top 100 big board of 2023 MLB Draft prospects

There is a lot more room for subjectivity on this side of scouting, but the short version is, there are four main grades for pitchers: Fastball, changeup, breaking ball of choice, and command.

Take LSU's Paul Skenes, who was graded by MLB.com:

MLB.com graded Skenes out with an 80 fastball, 50 changeup, 70 breaking ball (slider), and 55 command for a 65 overall. That breaks down to an elite fastball, average changeup, plus plus slider, and above average command. Most MLB pitchers are having their sliders evaluated in today's version of the game.

One way MLB teams may quantify command is with walks per nine, although that doesn't account for the fact one pitch may be a more frequent culprit of the walks than others.

What is a five-tool player?

One of the more abused terms in the modern baseball lexicon is a five-tool player.

A five-tool player goes beyond a player who is extremely good. It is a player who is above average -- or preferably plus -- in all five core categories. That means above average hitting, power, speed, fielding, and arm strength.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is a shining example of a player who is given the five-tool moniker, but doesn't have the stats bear it out. So far this season he is 80 grade in hitting, plus plus in power, plus plus in speed, and 80 grade in arm strength. He is, however, below average in fielding by outs above average, ranking in just the ninth percentile in 2023, per Baseball Savant.

This is in no way a condemnation of Acuña, but rather an illustration of how rare the five-tool player is. In fact, there's an argument only one or two five-tool players are active in baseball right now, although there are some players who could be positioned to be next in line.

Examples of five-tool players

Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are possibly the only active five-tool players in baseball. Throughout their careers they have hit for average and power while playing outstanding outfields with incredible arm strength.

AP
Mike Trout is one of the few five-tool players in baseball now.

Julio Rodriguez could have been in this conversation last season, but his hitting is down this season, and Byron Buxton is essentially a full-time DH as injuries have continued to hinder his career.

Five-tool players don't just happen, and they're more than a player who can hit for power and average. They have to be standouts in every facet of the game. Broadcasts will casually throw the term out. But scouts reserve it for the best of the best.

Is Shohei Ohtani a five-tool player?

Then, there is Ohtani.

Ohtani is, technically, a five-tool player, but nowhere near the conventional sense. He breaks baseball in every other way, so why not this one?

MORE: MLB Mock Draft 2023, 3-round edition: Will Paul Skenes or Dylan Crews go No. 1?

Ohtani this season is an 80-grade in power, plus plus in hitting, and his pitching arsenal includes multiple plus pitches.

Because Ohtani doesn't play the field, we can't call him a five-tool player in the same way Trout or Betts can be called five-tool players. But we can call him something else entirely.

What is a good overall grade for a prospect?

A player who grades out as a 65 overall or higher is seen as being over the rubicon as a potential All-Star or impact player.

Skenes and Dylan Crews, for example, are both graded at 65 heading into this year's draft, meaning scouts believe they could be legitimate impact players down the road. Jackson Holliday of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Reds are both graded at 65, the only two in MLB Pipeline.

Anything higher than a 65 overall is extremely rare. Players who grade out at 60 are seen as impact players. While they may not be viewed as perennial All-Stars out of the gate, they are team positives. Florida's Wyatt Langford falls in this range.

Ultimately, scouting boils down to extremely educated guesswork. Players may live up to their potential and they may not. Justin Upton, for example, got grades of 70 across the board from one scout coming into the Major Leagues, according to Baseball America. Although Upton had a long, productive career, that would project him out as a likely Hall of Famer.

Although the grading scale mimics the scientific one, there is no perfect formula for projection. Because of the commonality of these terms, their definitions get stretched so as to become unrecognizable. 80-grade skills and five-tool players are extremely rare, the former by definition. No matter how much baseball changes, that simple fact won't.

 

Author(s)
Author Photo
Kevin Skiver is a content producer at The Sporting News
LATEST VIDEOS