With the 2023 NBA Draft in the rearview and the countdown ticking to Friday's free agency frenzy, the sports world has been largely dominated by Damian Lillard and where the Blazers star guard will play next season. Dame mania (or should we say Damania?) has even permeated into the world of sports betting, with Lillard's odds to play his next regular season minute listed for Portland, Miami, Brooklyn, and many other squads.
Let's dive into the 'Player's Next Team' odds on DraftKings and provide our best bets, sleepers, and fades for Dame, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, and Dillon Brooks. Is betting the chalk — or heavy favorite — the best way to go, or will some of these players be moved away from their status quo?
Below, we will share with you exactly how we are wagering our money in the 2023 NBA offseason market, and why each favorite, sleeper, or fade makes sense from a logistical betting standpoint.
MORE NBA FREE AGENCY:
Overview | Top 50 FA Big Board | 10 FA Sleepers | Top 11 point guards
Damian Lillard Next Team Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
| Blazers | -300 | Heat | +200 |
| Nets | +1000 | 76ers | +1800 |
| Celtics | +2000 | Pelicans | +2000 |
| Clippers | +3000 | Mavericks | +4000 |
| Raptors | +4000 | Knicks | +4000 |
| Bulls | +4000 | Lakers | +4000 |
| Hawks | +5000 | Nuggets | +5000 |
| Cavaliers | +5000 | Wolves | +6000 |
| Warriors | +6000 | Wizards | +7000 |
| Jazz | +7000 | Hornets | +8000 |
| Kings | +8000 | Thunder | +8000 |
| Grizzlies | +8000 | Bucks | +8000 |
| Magic | +8000 | Rockets | +8000 |
| Pacers | +8000 | Pistons | +10000 |
| Spurs | +10000 | Suns | +10000 |
Best bet to land Lillard: Heat (+200)
Lillard has been old-school loyal to the Blazers, having played his entire 11-year career in small-market Portland. And GM Joe Cronin said after meeting with Lillard and his agent on Monday that he and the organization "remain committed to building a winner around Dame."
But, let's be serious: this franchise seems light-years away from NBA Finals contention, with or without Dame. Scoot Henderson was a tremendous pick at No. 3, but he's a point guard like Lillard, and Portland still has glaring holes down low, on the perimeter, and off the bench.
While Lillard has alluded to the fact that he wouldn't want to join a superteam (a la Bradley Beal joining Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and DeAndre Ayton in Phoenix), he also wants to win sooner than later. Cronin's moves since taking office have not exactly screamed out "win now."
Drafting Shaedon Sharpe and trading away Josh Hart for Cam Reddish are tank moves, not bridge-year moves. Dame playing with fellow small guards Scoot and Anfernee Simons — not to mention middling offensive talents Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic — comprises a fringe play-in team, not a bona fide contender.
The Heat, meanwhile, are coming off their second losing NBA Finals bid in four seasons. They have two solid two-way stars in Jimmy Butler and Lillard's buddy Bam Adebayo, but they aren't stacked like Phoenix or Boston. They have a fantastic head coach in Erik Spoelstra, a strong culture of winning fostered by NBA icon Pat Riley, and a track record of making blockbuster offseason acquisitions. Oh, and no state income tax.
Lillard went on Instagram live recently from a Paris club where Will Smith's "Miami" was conveniently playing in the background. We also heard Whitney Houston's "I Wanna Dance With Somebody," which includes the lyrics "I wanna feel the heat with somebody." Butler, meanwhile, made a post featuring Dame's rap music. There are no coincidences — Dame and Miami have a legitimate mutual interest in one another.
The Heat can absolutely make a trade for Lillard work. Riley can package sharpshooter Tyler Herro, veteran Kyle Lowry or marksman Duncan Robinson, youngsters Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez, and 2023 postseason breakout Caleb Martin with multiple first-round picks and pick swaps. A combo like that would give Portland a couple of decent young assets to build around Scoot, as well as more draft equity for the coming years.
Lillard's loyalty has been admirable — and we understand why Cronin may want his superstar to stay in town for the long haul -- but it flat-out does not make sense for either side for Dame to stay in Portland. The "win-now" window of two years might as well be shut already because there's no way the Blazers can improve enough by 2024-25 to contend.
Lillard will make $45.64 million this season, $48.79 million next season, then a projected $121.7 million in '26 and '27 (assuming he picks up his $63-plus million player option in '27). That's a ton of money for a 33-year-old point guard, but our bet is still on him playing his first minute with the Heat this fall. Lillard could be the final piece to the puzzle for this Miami team, much like Jrue Holiday was for Milwaukee a few years back. It's time for Dame and Portland to split.
Another favorite to land Dame: The Nets (+1000) have a ton of draft picks between trading away James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving over the past few years. Dame has said himself that Brooklyn would be an ideal landing spot along with Miami, citing his friendship with Mikal Bridges. We just wonder if the Nets could package enough talent along with the picks to make the money work and wow Cronin.
MORE: Steph Noh breaks down the Dame to Miami rumors
Sleeper to land Lillard: Clippers (+3000)
The Clippers have been a point guard shy of truly contending for a few years now, and the duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard has been a sight rarely seen by even the L.A. fanbase due to injuries and load management. It has been widely speculated early this offseason that George could be on the move, and he would certainly be one of the best possible assets for Portland to land in exchange for Lillard.
With Scoot and Simons in the backcourt, a two-way star wing like PG13 makes a ton of sense for Chauncey Billups and the Blazers. If he was able to stay healthy, George would arguably give Portland a better chance than Dame to contend for the playoffs sooner than later.
Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report recently wrote about a similar hypothetical that would land Dame in L.A. but ship PG13 to the Knicks and send a plethora of assets to Portland in a three-way deal. That could work, too, and would likely satisfy all parties' immediate interests. Don't be surprised if the Clippers (+3000) or Knicks (+4000) at least make a run at the Lillard sweepstakes.
Other sleepers to land Lillard: Do the Bulls or Raptors (both +4000) have enough pieces to land their next point guard? With Lonzo Ball still hurt and Fred VanVleet likely on the move this summer, we wouldn't be surprised to hear some rumors circulating out of Chi-town or The 6.
Long shot to land Lillard: Wolves (+6000), Jazz (+7000)
Both Minnesota and Utah have been very active on the trade market over the past year, and both squads would benefit in a major way from the addition of Lillard.
Minnesota has one of the best trade chips in hoops in big-man sharpshooter Karl-Anthony Towns, and we doubt the Wolves contend for a championship any time soon with KAT and Rudy Gobert alongside one another.
Danny Ainge and the Jazz, meanwhile, have a ton of assets stacked up after the Gobert deal and look like they're one or two pieces away from legitimately making a run at the playoffs.
Ainge just acquired John Collins from the Hawks on Monday, a player he has coveted for years, and Utah has solid young building blocks in Colin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler. We doubt Lillard would want to move to Minneapolis or Salt Lake City, but crazier things have happened!
Kyrie Irving Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
| Mavericks | -500 | Lakers | +550 |
| Heat | +1000 | Clippers | +1200 |
| Suns | +2500 | Wolves | +2500 |
| Bulls | +2500 | 76ers | +3000 |
| Thunder | +3000 | Jazz | +3000 |
| Pelicans | +4000 | Cavaliers | +4000 |
| Magic | +5000 | Blazers | +5000 |
| Bucks | +5000 | Raptors | +5000 |
| Rockets | +5000 | Nuggets | +5000 |
| Wizards | +5000 | Knicks | +5000 |
| Grizzlies | +5000 | Warriors | +7500 |
| Pacers | +7500 | Celtics | +7500 |
| Spurs | +7500 | Kings | +7500 |
| Hawks | +7500 | Hornets | +7500 |
| Pistons | +7500 | Nets | +7500 |
Best bet to land Irving: Mavericks (-500) or fade entirely
This one makes for a far less compelling writeup — and drastically worse odds and potential payout. Irving played well with Luka Doncic after getting traded from the Nets to Dallas, at least in comparison to how Irving's stay at his last couple of stops turned out. In terms of actual results, though, Dallas went 7-15 after the All-Star break. The Mavs remain the frontrunner to acquire Irving's services once again for 2023-24, with Mark Cuban not about to let a stud guard walk for nothing for the second straight summer. The Mavs may forever be haunted by Jalen Brunson emerging into a borderline All-Star for the Knicks.
Both the Lakers and Clippers could be dark-horse candidates to land Irving, but the salary cap gymnastics both teams would have to carry out to make such a big splash might not be worth the locker-room headache Irving so often turns out to be.
Irving stands to secure a five-year deal worth up to $272.9 million if he re-signs with the Mavs. If he chooses to outright sign elsewhere, the largest contract he could sign is a four-year, $201.7 million contract. It's unlikely that he'll get a deal that big from anyone, but the only play here as a bettor is Mavericks -500. However, there's so little value in that — and so much volatility with anything regarding Irving as a person — that your best bet is to fade this prop entirely.
Russell Westbrook Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
| Clippers | -260 | Mavericks | +700 |
| Heat | +1000 | Bulls | +1200 |
| Wizards | +1800 | Grizzlies | +1800 |
| Nets | +2200 | Thunder | +3000 |
| Pelicans | +3500 | Lakers | +4000 |
| 76ers | +4000 | Knicks | +4500 |
| Hornets | +4500 | Rockets | +4500 |
| Magic | +5000 | Suns | +5000 |
| Hawks | +5000 | Raptors | +5500 |
| Spurs | +6000 | Jazz | +6000 |
| Wolves | +6000 | Celtics | +7000 |
| Pistons | +7000 | Nuggets | +7000 |
| Blazers | +7000 | Pacers | +8000 |
| Bucks | +8000 | Kings | +9000 |
| Warriors | +9000 | Cavaliers | +9000 |
Best bet to land Westbrook: Clippers (-260)
Another unexciting piece of betting advice, we admit, but the Clippers are one of the only teams in the NBA that needs someone like Russ, an energizer point guard who brings physicality and bench scoring but can't shoot from range.
Russ's case is an interesting one in many ways. He went from playing for the Lakers and making over $48 million in the final year of his massive Thunder contract to bringing in a little under $785,000 with the Clippers after a trade to the Jazz and consequent buyout.
Who knows what he's worth now? Some still consider him one of the more formidable veteran slashers in the NBA. Others call him "Westbrick" and would rather dip their hands in battery acid than have him on their team. Chances are he will sign for the veteran's minimum or the low mid-level exception, deals that won't hamstring a squad like the Clips from acquiring other roster pieces.
Our bet is on the status quo. Ty Lue and the Clippers seemed to like what Russ brought to the table, and Russ seemed to accept (at least most of the time) that this is Kawhi Leonard's team when Kawhi's healthy. It's boring, but I'd rather make 50 boring bucks than lose $100 on something fun that won't happen.
Dillon Brooks Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
| Rockets | -900 | Suns | +1500 |
| Mavericks | +1500 | Cavaliers | +1800 |
| Pistons | +1800 | Heat | +1800 |
| Blazers | +2200 | Bucks | +2500 |
| Bulls | +2500 | Hornets | +2500 |
| Jazz | +2500 | Pacers | +2500 |
| Kings | +2500 | Lakers | +3000 |
| Wolves | +3000 | 76ers | +3000 |
| Wizards | +3000 | Hawks | +3000 |
| Celtics | +3000 | Warriors | +3000 |
| Nets | +3000 | Clippers | +3500 |
| Spurs | +3500 | Pelicans | +3500 |
| Nuggets | +3500 | Magic | +3500 |
| Raptors | +4000 | Thunder | +4000 |
| Grizzlies | +4000 | Knicks | +5000 |
Best bet to land Brooks: Rockets (-900) but FADE!
The books love Brooks to sign with the Rockets — the -900 represents a nearly 90-percent implied probability. We would tend to agree that Houston is a frontrunner here. The organization's offseason goal, after all, is to add veteran leadership and defense to its young core of scorers. Considering Rafael Stone has $60 million in open cap space to work with, we won't be surprised one bit if Brooks is launching shots for the Rockets next season.
Nobody else seems to have space or the required patience for Brooks, who became more of a headache than anything for the Grizzlies at the end of last season. Between chucking up shots, poking the LeBron James bear, and fizzling out in the postseason, a divorce from Memphis became imminent — and remarriage with this kind of ego can be tricky. Ime Udoka will be a good leader for Brooks, who has solid defensive abilities and can hit the occasional open three-pointer. This is the best bet, but at the same time, it's a total fade. You won't make any money compared to your risk if you touch this prop.
Sleeper to land Brooks: Wolves or Nets (both +3000)
Two contending squads that could use some bench punch and help with perimeter defense are Minnesota and Brooklyn. It's not inconceivable that one of these squads uses an MLE on Brooks, but it's also not very likely. So, you could put a modest $10 wager on both of these squads and hope for a $300 profit on the off-chance he signs with either, but like most teams this summer, we will probably just stay away from Brooks entirely.