The NCAA baseball tournament is a good chance for players to build up their stock on the national stage just before the MLB draft. Hurston Waldrep has certainly taken advantage of the spotlight to do just that.
Waldrep did not necessarily live up to all of the preseason hype. He struggled throughout the year to maintain consistency, mixing in a rough outing that saw him lose command and issue too many free passes and lose track of the game. At other points, he'd effectively pitch around them by overpowering hitters with a filthy arsenal.
But in the postseason, it had largely been dominance from Waldrep. Over his first three starts, he threw 21 innings, allowing just 19 hits, seven walks and two runs (both earned) while fanning 37 batters. However, he struggled in the College World Series final against LSU, allowing three runs on six walks and four hits with just two strikeouts in 2.1 innings, highlighting his inconsistency that plagued him throughout 2023.
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Waldrep's inconsistencies throughout the season have made him a polarizing prospect, with some viewing him as a clear first-round pitcher, while others view him as only the fourth- or fifth-best college arm in a top-heavy class.
Here's what you need to know about Waldrep as he prepares to take what will almost certainly be his final collegiate start.
Hurston Waldrep scouting report
There won't be any questions about Waldrep's stuff when a team decides to select him in July's draft. The 6-2, 205-pound right-hander has a complete mix of pitches, with four above-average to plus pitches that he will use against hitters.
It starts with his fastball, which averages in the mid-90s and can hit as high as 99 mph with some movement. He has two breaking balls that both grade out as above-average pitches in a hammer curveball and a hard, biting slider, both of which sit in the 80s.
His bread and butter offering, however, is his split changeup. The pitch is a filthy offering that reaches the upper-80s and falls off the table. Waldrep has used it frequently against both left- and right-handed hitters, which makes it one of the best secondary offerings in this year's draft class.
Hurston Waldrep's Splitter (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/JHZIhOcizy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 19, 2023
A close up on the grip makes you question the pitch even more:
Today you'll see Hurston Waldrep's split-change. The grip is insane.
— Nick de la Torre (@delatorre) June 25, 2023
He throws it 85-89 MPH. pic.twitter.com/JGrk7f02d5
The stuff might be second only to Paul Skenes in the 2023 MLB Draft class. The catch? Waldrep's control as been inconsistent, to say the least. A rain-delayed start that limited him to a single inning on May 13 marks the only time this year that he didn't walk at least two batters. He also walked at least four batters four times and at least six twice.
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While Waldrep's stuff is filthy enough to allow him to fan 156 batters in 101 2/3 innings, his control inconsistencies also led to 57 walks during the course of the season. Part of the problem for Waldrep is that his delivery is a bit wild, which is why it can be harder for him to throw strikes as consistently.
A team that drafts Waldrep will take him with the hope that he can harness his command enough to stay in the rotation and strikeout enough batters to overcome some walk problems. There are plenty out there who see his future as a reliever, where his unhittable stuff will play up more, and the shorter stints will mask some of his control issues.
Hurston Waldrep MLB comparison
There aren't many pitchers in baseball today that feature a splitter, which makes finding an easy comparison for Waldrep difficult.
Jhoan Duran is semi-comparable in that he has the high-octane stuff with control issues that wound up necessitating a move from the rotation to the bullpen. But Duran throws harder, with his splitter averaging 98.8 mph, making it more of a split-finger fastball rather than a split-change.
We've got Ryne Stanek as a decent MLB comp for Waldrep. There are some differences in the delivery, but Stanek relies on a fastball that has played up in velocity since moving to the bullpen (now averaging 98.4 mph) while mixing in a split-finger changeup and a slider as his primary offerings. Stanek used to have a curveball in his arsenal, but wound up dropping the pitch while Waldrep is more likely to keep his breaker.
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Stanek was a first-round pick by the Rays back in 2013 and had the stuff to be an exciting prospect, but struggled with walks in the minors and wound up having to move to the bullpen, where he has excelled both with the Rays and the Astros. That is not to say Waldrep will be moved to the bullpen as well, but rather highlights what could happen if he can't harness his control more in the minors.
Where will Hurston Waldrep be drafted?
Waldrep has done enough that most believe he will be the fourth college pitcher taken in the 2023 MLB Draft, and that he will still slot in during the first round. Skenes will all but certainly be the first college pitcher off the board, and in some order, Tennessee's Chase Dollander and Wake Forest's Rhett Lowder will likely separate Skenes and Waldrep.
There is a chance that a team that has a successful track record of developing plus-stuff arms will take Waldrep higher than Dollander and Lowder. Waldrep arguably has the second-best raw stuff in the class, but is just not as refined as the other three collegiate arms.
Here's where outlets are projecting Waldrep to be selected in this year's draft:
- Sporting News: No. 17 to Orioles
- Baseball America: No. 18 to Brewers
- The Athletic: No. 21 to Cardinals
- MLB Pipeline: No. 18 to Brewers