Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 betting guide: Our PGA expert's best bets to rocket into the Fourth of July

The Rocket Mortgage Classic has been on the summer PGA TOUR schedule for the past four years. For the fifth time, Detroit Golf Club is hosting the $8.8 million dollar competition. The field of 156 players are descending upon this 36-hole Donald Ross design to compete for $1.58 million in first-place prize money. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend on the 7,370-yard, par-72 composite course. The championship course uses 17 holes from the North Course and one hole from the South.

This Motor City shootout has a scoring history — the average winning total is 23 under par. Even more interesting, check out the pre-tournament odds each winner entered the week with:

If the trend is our friend, then this year we should see another medium-to-long odds winner. Starting last week, Keegan Bradley was +9000 to win the Travelers. At Read The Line, we love a nice long shot win. When you consider the course, it makes sense. Like any birdie-fest, guys get hot with the putter and then few can keep up. A player may come in with +15000 odds to win, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a world-class ball-striker and scorer.

Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023: Outright Odds

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Rocket Mortgage Classic: A Donald design

I love classic golf course architecture. Technology may have passed Detroit Golf Club by with the driver, but these green complexes are all unique. Ross and his peers had to be so creative. Modern designers have thousands of courses to study prior to creating a new course. Donald Ross created DGC from his imagination. Even if he saw a bunch of other courses, they didn’t have the technology to copy images, let alone move dirt as they do today.

The 18-hole championship layout at DGC combines the best features available on the property. Water comes into play on one hole (14) and 87 bunkers guard the landscape. Each of those amazing green complexes has at least one sandy trap protecting it. At 7,300 yards, it doesn’t play long. Four par-5s add distance to the card, but they also add sub-par scores.

Past winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic share a couple of common traits. The first is power. Past champions include defending champ Tony Finau and Bryson DeChambeau. Players favor distance over accuracy off the tee and attack each hole aggressively with the driver. If the blueprint seems simple, it is. Create 36 birdie chances, convert 28-30 and take the trophy home.

The expected weather will only add to the scoring. On Sunday, the course received an inch of rain and some wild wind. Throw in some temperatures in the 80s with humidity and the ball will be flying. Rain is forecasted for the weekend, which may soften the putting surfaces and make them even more receptive. All of these conditions promote more birdies. Did I mention the wind won’t blow over 10 mph in any of the four rounds?

Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023: Go low, or go home

The largest average strokes gained category by the four previous winners was with the putter. Lashley, Dechambeau, Davis, and Finau gained an average of six strokes against the field with their flat-stick. Creating those birdie chances inside 15 feet is one thing — converting them is another. The putter is the least predictable club, and that is why we see such volatility in the winners.

Players will need to average seven or eight birdies per round. Tony Finau made 27 birdies and one bogey in 72 holes last year. Our best bets highlight those who can seriously score. Consistency covers the top of the betting board every week. Sitting in the middle are players who can make 25 or more sub-par scores on any given week. They sit in the range of +5000 to +10000 because they do it every once in a while.

The names below reflect incredible scoring ability and sensational recent form. They can score on par-4s and par-5s. Their proximity to the hole is elite, and on occasion when the putter goes wild — as it did for Keegan Bradley last week — they win. The Travelers was a perfect preview of scoring for Detroit Golf Club from an approach and putting perspective. Both courses require the same iron-play skills and a hot putter. If you followed the leaderboard last week, be prepared to see a similar list of contenders in Detroit.

Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Alex Smalley (+5500)

In his last five starts, Alex Smalley has gained over two strokes per start off the tee and on approach. That level of balance is what earned the Duke standout seven top-15 finishes last season. When the putter warms up, he scores — and we saw it last week when he finished ninth at the Travelers. He has the game to create 35 birdie opportunities in this tournament because he is ranked fourth in the field for GIRs gained. Sitting in the middle of the board, he’s perfectly positioned for a nice size win.

Best bet to finish in the Top 40: Brandon Wu (+130), Dylan Wu (+180), and Carson Young (+225)

The list of top birdie or better percentage (BoB%) players in the field includes Brandon Wu (11th), Dylan Wu (eighth), and Carson Young (third). Each of these young men can significantly score. Brandon capitalizes with his wedge-game proximity, Dylan hits a ton of GIRs, and Carson thrives thanks to an incredible putter. When the scoring heats up in Detroit, these three will find themselves right in the thick of the competition.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Rocket Mortgage winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.