Star NFL wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the most heavily discussed free agents in years, with rumors swirling more widely every time the three-time All-Pro meets with a new team. The most recent chatter has been about the former Texan and Cardinal joining the Patriots, following a two-day visit with Bill Belichick and company in New England.
The Pats are now the clubhouse favorite to land Hopkins, with DraftKings listing +100 odds for him "to take his next regular season snap" with the most winningest team of the 21st century. But is that a good bet to make? And why have New Englanders been unable to make that bet?
Prior to Hop's visit to Foxboro, the Titans had been listed as the odds-on favorite to land him. But the five-time Pro Bowler left Nashville without a contract, leading many to speculate that eight-time Super Bowl champion coach Bill Belichick would win the Nuk sweepstakes.
WR DeAndre Hopkins and the Patriots have had a productive visit, according to a source. No deal at the moment, but there’s still a level of optimism the two sides could reach an agreement. @TheAthletic
— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) June 15, 2023
The visit itself reportedly went very well, with Hopkins allegedly spending one-on-one time with Belichick himself. Many reporters and sources close to the team, including recently-retired Pats cornerback Jason McCourty of "Good Morning Football," have spoken about how teammates and Patriots officials "feel really good about the visit" and "there's a mutual respect" between Hopkins, Bill Belichick, and the Patriots.
"I spoke to some guys around that area, guys on the team," McCourty said. "Once he was in the building, guys feel really good — not only about them wanting to get him there, but also DeAndre Hopkins having interest and wanting to play for the New England Patriots and wanting to play for Bill Belichick. I think we heard JuJu Smith-Schuster sign there in free agency and say that it meant something for the New England Patriots and for Bill to want him to come play for that team."
Free Agent DeAndre Hopkins visited with the Patriots Thursday...@JasonMcCourty with the inside scoop pic.twitter.com/FIWVYscRPe
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) June 16, 2023
Of course, it's worth noting that DHop, similar to how he parted with Mike Vrabel and the Titans, left Belichick and the Patriots' facility without putting pen to paper. And McCourty himself said "we'll see in the coming days, weeks when it actually happens." Many Patriots writers and pundits have opined that it will likely all come down to money, and Belichick and Hopkins compromising with each other's terms.
Belichick has famously been one of the savviest GMs in the NFL when it comes to getting bang for the buck. Over the years, the six-time Super Bowl-champion head coach (and owner of eight Super Bowl rings in total) has traded away or let countless Pro Bowl players walk rather than overpay them after they passed their prime. And while Hopkins would be a game-changer for young New England QB Mac Jones and the Pats, it's also inarguable that the 31-year-old's best days as a pro are behind him.
Hopkins played just 19 games over the past two NFL regular seasons, mostly due to injuries and an inconsistent rapport with Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and former Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury. His last Pro Bowl selection came in 2020 in his first year in Glendale, a season in which he logged 1,407 receiving yards. DHop's three consecutive All-Pro selections came between 2017 and 2019, a span in which he tallied 4,115 air yards and 31 touchdown catches across total 46 games.
DraftKings even listing odds for Hopkins' ultimate 2023-24 destination seems intriguing — bettors seldom get the opportunity to wager on where free agents will sign, at least with authorized U.S. sportsbooks like DK, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Many believe it's a market that can be too easily manipulated with rumors, or taken advantage of by sources and associates of the free agent who may have the inside scoop.
In this case, bettors in Massachusetts have been unable to place a wager on Hopkins joining any team, never mind the Patriots. When my colleagues click on DraftKings' "Player Futures" page, the first tab they see is "DeAndre Hopkins next team." When I head there from Massachusetts, the first tab I see is the "Most Passing Yards" stat category.
Here's the screenshots of what my colleague Nick Musial saw on DraftKings from the midwest:
It's possible DraftKings excluded Mass. residents from this action because they worry that people close to the Patriots facility or associated with team players and personnel might let something leak. It's also possible that DK simply wants to avoid Bostonians flooding the DHop to New England market and creating a massive liability that will cost the sportsbook a ton of money in the long run. This is a niche prop to the rest of the country — it's as appetizing as a lobster roll to the ravenous fans that make up Patriots Nation.
In the end, only Bill Belichick and DeAndre Hopkins really know what will happen. Belichick has been as tight-lipped and impossible to crack as any coach in NFL history when it comes to personnel moves. And we can trust the hearsay and the inadmissible evidence all we want — like Mac Jones following Hop on social media, or McCourty claiming the visit went swimmingly, or beat writers discussing how well Nuk would work within an offense run by Belichick and offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (the latter of whom served as Hopkins' head coach in Houston). None of that gives us an ironclad answer as to where Hopkins will land.
We're guessing. That's what betting is, in the grand scheme of things. The experts and sharp bettors make successful careers out of being right 60 to 70 percent of the time, just like baseball players mount Hall-of-Fame careers when they succeed at getting base over 30-35 percent of the time. You put in the work, do your research, follow the trends, and make the best educated guesses before you submit each bet. Just like Belichick puts in the work to study Hopkins' film, follow his statistical impacts over the past few years, and evaluate and assess his prospective value to the Patriots.
My educated guess, as a betting analyst and a lifelong New England sports fan, is that Belichick wants Hopkins on the Patriots and will do what it takes to make it happen. Bill the coach remains elite, but Belichick the GM has struggled for years to pinpoint wide receiver value in drafts. And his last big wideout acquisition before Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker ahead of the 2022 season, yielded underwhelming results.
Hopkins would automatically slot in as the Patriots' WR1, providing Jones with a tall, sure-handed target with established success and plenty of respect from opposing defenses. The considerable attention Hop would likely command from secondaries and defensive coordinators would open up the field for Smith-Schuster in the slot, tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki over the middle, and Parker and Kendrick Bourne out wide. And a more dependable aerial assault would unclog the line for talented New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
Former Patriots exec Mike Lomardi told the Pat McAfee Show on Friday that Hopkins is looking for a contract similar to what Odell Beckham Jr. signed with the Ravens this offseason, around $15 million. And while that's not a move Belichick typically makes with offensive weapons (the last big bag he chucked toward an outside unrestricted free agent was cornerback Darrell Revis), he also has the salary cap space to make a deal of that magnitude work.
When Bill likes a guy, he goes out and gets him — and at 71 years old with an unproven young QB under center, he needs a No. 1 wide receiver. Hopkins is far from the talent Randy Moss was in 2007, but he's also head-and-shoulders above 2022 New England WR1 Jakobi Meyers. This could be the last big free agent acquisition of Belichick's career, and perhaps his most important move since the GOAT Tom Brady departed Foxboro for Tampa Bay. With personal legacies on the line for both Belichick and Hopkins, we're betting on the Patriots +100 to emerge with yet another big 21st-century victory.
Betting advice: Bet $50 on Hopkins ultimately signing with the Patriots (+100)