The beauty of the most stunning March Madness Cinderella moments and runs is how they come from absolutely nowhere. It’s the shock that’s intoxicating.
Like Saint Peter’s last year? Even now, it’s hard to believe that happened. And UMBC as the 16 seed over Virginia not so long ago — still can’t believe I was lucky enough to be courtside for that one — still baffles the mind.
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So I have my fingers crossed (all of ‘em) for another shocking moment or two, but as I look at this year’s bracket, just not sure that’s happening. Oh, there will be upsets and there will be buzzer-beaters and unforgettable moments. But a 14 or 15 seed in the Sweet 16?
Just don’t see that happening, though I would love to be wrong. And thankfully for fans of chaos in the NCAA Tournament, I am often wrong.
MORE EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Pohnl (Kansas)
March Madness bracket predictions 2023
South Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Alabama over 16 Southeast Missouri State
8 Maryland over 9 West Virginia
12 Charleston over 5 San Diego State
4 Virginia over 13 Furman
6 Creighton over 11 N.C. State
3 Baylor over 14 UC Santa Barbara
7 Missouri over 10 Utah State
2 Arizona over 15 Princeton
SECOND ROUND
1 Alabama over 8 Maryland
12 Charleston over 4 Virginia
6 Creighton over 3 Baylor
2 Arizona over 7 Missouri
SWEET 16
1 Alabama over 12 Charleston
2 Arizona over 6 Creighton
ELITE EIGHT
1 Alabama over 2 Arizona
The best game of this entire region? That’s the potential second-round matchup of 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Mizzou. When the Tigers are hitting from outside — five players hit at least 30, and two more made at least 15 — they can beat just about anyone in the country (except Alabama or Kansas). Wouldn’t shock me to see them in the Elite Eight. But while “make a lot of 3-pointers” is a great way to pull off an upset like beating a 2 seed, it’s tough to use that to predict an Elite Eight run, y’know?
Pat Kelsey’s Charleston team is tough. I wrote that Sweet 16 pick in ink right away. Alabama’s too damn tough, though, to have them going any deeper.
The South games played in Denver are … uninspiring.
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East Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Purdue over 16 Texas Southern
8 Memphis over 9 Florida Atlantic
12 Oral Roberts over 5 Duke
13. Louisiana over 4 Tennessee
11 Providence over 6 Kentucky
3 Kansas State over 14 Montana State
7 Michigan State over 10 USC
2 Marquette over 15 Vermont
SECOND ROUND
1 Purdue over 8 Memphis
12 Oral Roberts over 13 Louisiana
3 Kansas State over 11 Providence
2 Marquette over 7 Michigan State
SWEET 16
1 Purdue over 12 Oral Roberts
2 Marquette over 3 Kansas State
ELITE EIGHT
2 Marquette over Purdue
Love what Oral Roberts has, and there’s something to be said for a team that does nothing but win all season, especially in conference play, in tough road atmospheres. Their draw gives them the toughest (in my opinion) of the No. 5 seeds, though. The winner of the Duke-ORU game goes to the Sweet 16.
Tennessee is way, way overseeded at 4.
Memphis is tough, and that 1v8 game with Purdue should be fun, but unless Zach Edey gets hurt or in foul trouble, Purdue’s moving on.
Shaka Smart’s Marquette team is playing at an unreal level. I wouldn’t want anything to do with them. I expect them to cruise into the Elite Eight.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Midwest Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Houston over 16 Northern Kentucky
9 Auburn over 8 Iowa
5 Miami over 12 Drake
4 Indiana over 13 Kent State
11 Pitt over 6 Iowa State
3 Xavier over 14 Kennesaw State
7 Texas A&M over 10 Penn State
2 Texas over 15 Colgate
SECOND ROUND
1 Houston over 9 Auburn
4 Indiana over 5 Miami
3 Xavier over 11 Pitt
2 Texas over 7 Texas A&M
SWEET 16
4 Indiana over 1 Houston
2 Texas over 3 Xavier
ELITE EIGHT
2 Texas over 4 Indiana
What is the status of Marcus Sasser? That’s the million-dollar question. I love the experience and continuity Houston has — nine of the Cougars’ top 10 scorers are homegrown (as in, they played their freshman year in Houston) — and if any team’s built to withstand the loss of a player as special as Sasser, it’s that Houston team. I know this sounds odd to say, but if the Cougars get past the Sweet 16, I’d expect them to win the Elite Eight, no matter who they play.
Speaking of that Sweet 16 … which Indiana squad are we going to see? If it’s the version where Jalen Hood-Schifino and Trayce Jackson-Davis are both playing like the best player on the team — it’s happened a lot lately — this is an IU team that could make a deep run. The opportunity is there. If that’s not happening, though? Kent State could be tough.
I’m not sold on Iowa State, which gives Pitt — didn’t expect the Panthers in the play-in game — a chance to win a couple games.
Xavier’s tough.
West Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas over 16 Howard
8 Arkansas over 9 Illinois
12 VCU over 5 Saint Mary’s
4 UConn over 13 Iona
6 TCU over 11 Arizona State
3 Gonzaga over 14 Grand Canyon
10 Boise State over 7 Northwestern
2 UCLA over 15 Asheville
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 8 Arkansas
4 UConn over 12 VCU
3 Gonzaga over 6 TCU
2 UCLA over 10 Boise State
SWEET 16
1 Kansas over 4 UConn
3 Gonzaga over 2 UCLA
ELITE EIGHT
1 Kansas over 2 UCLA
Wasn’t long ago that I had UCLA pegged as a sleeper pick for a national champion, depending on how the brackets — and matchups — looked. But, yeah, the end of the season was just brutal to a Bruins team that’s still good. I mean, losing a guy like Jaylen Clark and possibly big man Adem Bona, too? Just ain’t fair. Too many good teams in that bracket to pick them getting out.
Maybe this is the year Gonzaga gets it together? The Zags had some hiccups along the way, but it’s a veteran squad that might play better in the underdog role.
As far as upsets in this bracket, I obviously like VCU over Saint Mary’s, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Commodores reach the Sweet 16. They’ll be a handful for UConn, and that’s if UConn gets past Iona.
Everyone’s going to focus on Rick Pitino, but that’s a helluva talented Gaels team, and they’ll give the Huskies everything they can handle.
The 10-7 games aren’t really “upsets” but I like Boise over Northwestern.
Final Four picks
2 Marquette over 1 Alabama
2 Texas over 1 Kansas
2 Marquette over 2 Texas
I’ll be honest, I didn’t set out to pick a National Championship game between Shaka Smart’s current team and his former team. Didn’t even think about it until after I went through the brackets and thought, “huh, well that’s fun.”
Any of those four teams in the Final Four are very capable of winning, as is the team (Purdue) that I have losing to Marquette in the Elite Eight.
Buckle up, folks. It’s gonna be fun.
