After an exciting weekend of semifinal action, the 2023 USFL Championship is set to kick off on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC) at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, as the Pittsburgh Maulers will try to dethrone the defending champion Birmingham Stallions (-6.5).
The Maulers (4-6) kept their dream season alive last weekend, defeating the Panthers 31-27 in overtime as both teams left everything they had on the field. Head coach Ray Horton, who replaced Kirby Wilson in the offseason, saw his team go from worst to first in the North en route to the championship game. The Maulers don't have the best offense in the league, but they found stability at QB with Troy Williams, who is a threat to run the ball and can hurt teams with his arm too.
When the offense struggles to score points, the Maulers can lean on the defense, which has been the best in the USFL this season. Defensive coordinator Jarren Horton has a stellar front seven that doesn't give up a ton of yards on the ground and a secondary that can create turnovers. In their win last weekend over the Panthers, the Maulers produced three takeaways.
That being said, Saturday night's championship game will be Pittsburgh's greatest test, as the Stallions (8-2) have proven all season long that they're the team to beat in the USFL. Birmingham crushed New Orleans 47-22 in the USFL South division title game last week behind another excellent performance from QB Alex McGough. The second-year signal-caller completed 21-of-31 passes for 310 yards and four touchdowns. McGough also had 84 yards on the ground and a score. The Stallions will need another MVP-level performance from McGough on Saturday night against Pittsburgh's stingy defense.
Below, we'll break down the best bets for the 2023 USFL Championship game and predict who will hoist the trophy at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium.
USFL Championship picks, predictions
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Pittsburgh Maulers at Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC
- Spread: Maulers +7.5 (-105); Stallions -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Maulers +260; Stallions -350
- Over/Under: 46
When these two teams played each other in Week 4, the Maulers gave the Stallions a scare, taking a 20-17 lead midway through in the fourth quarter after QB Troy Williams took off for a 34-yard rushing TD. However, Pittsburgh's lead didn't last long, as Stallions WR Deon Cain recorded a 91-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, ultimately giving Birmingham a 24-20 win.
Despite the loss, the Maulers made life hard for McGough, who completed just 58.6 percent of his passes for 157 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. Pittsburgh also held him to 48 yards and a rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, Williams completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 217 yards and rushed for another 63 yards and a score. If Williams can have a similar performance Saturday, he will give his team a good shot at winning.
However, Williams will not be able to do it alone, as this offense needs everybody to do their part. In their Week 4 loss, Pittsburgh went 0-for-3 in the red zone, which cannot happen against a Stallions team averaging 31.6 points per game in its past six games. Williams will need WRs Isiah Hennie and Ishmael Hyman to be the top targets.
Hennie led the Maulers with six receptions (10 targets) for 83 yards in last week's win, while Hyman was the recipient of Williams' only TD pass. Pittsburgh also cannot be content with taking field goals this weekend because the Stallions can put up points in a flurry.
Birmingham is coming into this game on a six-game winning streak after trashing the Breakers. The Stallions won't score 40-plus points against the Maulers' defense, which was ranked second in points per game allowed during the regular season (17.2) and led the USFL in turnover margin (+8), so McGough will have to be extra careful against an aggressive front seven and solid secondary.
For the Stallions to win on Saturday night, they will need their running game to step up again. In their win over the Breakers last weekend, Birmingham had 245 yards and two touchdowns. Ricky Person Jr., who was called up from the IFL earlier this season, led the Stallions with 84 yards on 10 carries. If the running game can take the heat off of McGough, it will make a noticeable difference.
We believe Saturday's championship game will be a great battle between an explosive offense and a stout defense, making us lean toward the UNDER 45.5. This season, the Maulers have been one of the best teams involving the UNDER and played a huge part in the UNDER hitting in 53.7 percent of games (22-19-1) in the USFL. Pittsburgh will cover the spread, as its defense will keep Birmingham at bay, but the Stallions will make those game-winning plays in the fourth quarter to walk away with their second-straight title.
Lastly, if you are looking for additional action on Saturday's game, check out DraftKings, where they have the first-half spread, moneyline, and total. Since we believe the title game will be tightly contested, bettors should look at the Maulers +4 in the first half. In the Stallions' past five games, they are outscoring opponents by 4.2 points per game. Pittsburgh has the defense to keep it close in the first half, and if Williams plays mistake-free football, they can cover the small spread.
Picks: Stallions 24, Maulers 18 (+7.5); Maulers (+4) first-half spread