Heisman Trophy Odds 2023: Caleb Williams remains the favorite, Jordan Travis & Marvin Harrison Jr. lurk as sleepers

Although we're still months out from Week Zero of the college football season, the college football futures betting market never rests. BetMGM's had its 2023 Heisman Trophy odds posted for several weeks now, and hardcore football bettors have already gotten in their early bets on who they believe could hoist the Heisman Trophy come early December.

As is the case each year the reigning Heisman winner returns to school, all college football fanatics are wondering if USC QB Caleb Williams (+500) one-ups his 2022 campaign and becomes the first player since Ohio State's Archie Griffin to win the Heisman in consecutive seasons. Outside of Williams' attempt at history, there are plenty of other talented players with the ability to put forth a Heisman-caliber season.

Below, we’ll break down the two odds-on favorites while providing our favorite sleepers and a long shot that make for intriguing bets to win the Heisman Trophy in 2023.

Heisman Trophy Odds 2023

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2023 Heisman Trophy odds: Favorites

Caleb Williams, QB, USC +500 (implied probability 16.67 percent)

While expectations are sky high for the potential No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and if there's a player capable of joining Archie Griffin, it's Williams.

At this time last season, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud sat as the odds-on Heisman favorite with steep odds of +200. Considering Williams' price as the betting favorite in '23 is up to +500, there's undoubtedly value in his +500 odds given his elite skill set. The betting market's already baking in the uphill battle Williams will face repeating, and despite that, we're still enticed by prospects of becoming the first back-to-back Heisman winner in almost 50 years. Of course, it will be challenging to wow the Heisman voters enough to ultimately win the award, so we understand bettors' hesitation to wagering on the odds-on favorite this early in the season.

Williams' elite 2022 (4,537 yards, 42 TDs, five INTs, 87.6 QBR) helped USC sit one win away from reaching the College Football Playoff despite the Trojans' defense ending the season 114th out of 131 schools in EPA per play (0.144). While the Trojans' defense couldn't stop Utah's offense in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a practically one-legged Williams did all he could, finding a way to still throw for 363 yards and three touchdowns despite playing on a bum ankle for most of the contest. 

If USC's in the College Football Playoff mix toward the end of the season, there's a good chance Williams' name will sit atop the Heisman odds board. USC's back-loaded regular season schedule is significantly more daunting than last season, though. USC's slated to face Notre Dame on the road, Utah, Washington, Oregon on the road, and UCLA in five of its final six games, so returning to the Pac-12 title game will be a relatively tall feat. 

However, as long as Alex Grinch's stop unit shows more competency this season, USC has a real chance to make the CFP for the first time in school history with Williams earning a trip to New York City and potentially hoisting the Heisman in back-to-back years.

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU +900 (implied probability 10.00 percent)

Daniels sits as the only other player with fewer than 10-1 odds in the preseason, as LSU's QB1 is garnering quite a bit of hype entering his second full season with the Tigers. Although Daniels is among the country's best dual threats (2,913 passing yards, 885 rushing yards in 2022) we're not so sure he's warranted as Williams' top challenger.

To Daniels' credit, he made significant strides throughout his first season in Baton Rouge and had a heck of a showing in the Tigers' upset win over Alabama, but two of his final five performances of the '22 season stick out like a sore thumb -- the SEC Championship against Georgia and LSU's Week 11 road matchup against Arkansas.

While very few QBs had success against Georgia's defense last season, it's hard to bet on someone to win the Heisman who threw for 86 yards and an INT on eight-of-15 passing in a big game. His Week 11 showing wasn't the only SEC game where Daniels failed to eclipse 100 yards in the air either, as he ended his Week 5 contest against Auburn with 80 yards on eight-of-20 passing. 

The threat of a dud performance from Daniels makes us hesitant to bet him to win the Heisman at just 9-1, not even mentioning the fact LSU (+450) sits behind Georgia (-110) and Alabama (+260) with the third-best odds to win the SEC. If you disagree with our take and like LSU to win the SEC Championship Game at +450, then a wager on Daniels at +900 is worthwhile.

2023 Heisman Trophy odds: Sleepers

Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State +1200 (implied probability 7.69 percent)

Travis has an outside shot to become the fourth Florida State quarterback to win the Heisman, sitting with +1200 odds ahead of one of the Seminoles' most anticipated seasons over the past decade. Travis ended his fourth season at FSU racking up 3,214 passing yards with a 24:5 TD-to-INT ratio while also rushing for 417 yards and four scores to help the 'Noles win 10 games for the first since 2016.

Pro Football Focus had high praise for Travis' '22 campaign, as Travis owned the best FBS offensive grade (92.0), one spot ahead of USC's Williams (91.7). With eight starters returning on an offense that ended last season ranking 14th in EPA/play (.158), we could see the 'Noles back atop the ACC. 

If you want to bet on Travis to win the Heisman, laying down some action in the preseason might yield the highest potential payday. It's part of the gamble, but Travis has a chance to ascend up the Heisman odds board with a sound showing in Florida State's season-opener against Daniels and LSU in prime time on Sept. 3.

Should Travis post an efficient passing night while leading the 'Noles to victory, we'll likely see his odds move under 10-1. However, if he doesn't put forth a strong night, he could tumble down to 20-1 -- but he's also much less likely to win the award with a disappointing performance already on his resume.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State +2500 (implied probability 3.85 percent)

Harrison Jr.'s 25-1 price makes the future top-10 draft pick an enticing bet to be the fifth wide receiver ever to win the Heisman. Although C.J. Stroud is gone, Harrison Jr. should still put up numbers with presumptive starter Kyle McCord taking the reigns as the next QB for the Buckeyes.

Very few defensive backs in the Big Ten can stay in front of Harrison Jr. as he led all WRs in PFF's offensive grade (90.2) while averaging 16.4 yards per reception. He'll certainly see his fair share of bracket coverage, but if Harrison Jr. can put up close to 1,500 receiving yards while leading the Buckeyes to a Big Ten Championship, we could see him hoist the trophy in early December.

Other sleepers to consider: Carson Beck, QB, Georgia (+2000), Joe Milton, QB, Tennessee (+2000)

2023 Heisman Trophy odds: Best long shot

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia +8000 (implied probability 1.23 percent)

While just two wideouts have won the Heisman since 1991, Georgia's do-everything tight end is looking to become the first TE in the modern era to win the prestigious award. 

As the odds indicate, a lot will have to go right for Bowers to win the Heisman -- likely a 1,300-plus yard, 15-plus receiving TD season. But considering he’s the most lethal offensive weapon on the preseason National Champion favorite, it might not be as far-fetched as some think.

We could see Bowers' Heisman odds hover near the 50-1 mark within the first few weeks of the season, so bettors looking for a semi-realistic long shot could sprinkle some cash on the uber-talented tight end.

Other long shots to consider: KJ Jefferson, QB, Arkansas (+8000), Tyler Shough, QB, Texas Tech (+10000)