Baseball often has a way of evening out. A batter's week-long hot streak is usually matched at some point with a week-long cold streak. A team that can't lose one month seems like it can't win the next.
Over 162 games, every MLB team will experience the highest of highs and the lowest of lows at least once or twice — just hoping that there are a lot more of those highs than there are of the lows.
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Which brings me to the 2023 Rays, who are now 11-0 and getting closer every day to matching the MLB record for the best start to a season (13-0). But, if what goes around comes around, the Rays will have to find a way to avoid the cold other shoe that has dropped on three other winning teams after their record-setting hot starts.
*The 1981 A's, the 1982 Braves and the 1987 Brewers all nod in agreement*
So, even though every season is different and every team is different, and as silly as it sounds, there's at least some precedent suggesting that the Rays might've been better off had their winning streak ended at 10 games. Because, as we're about to see, winning that 11th straight game (or more) to start a season has portended a painful lesson in baseball's ability to keep you humble.
The 1981 A's (11-0)
Billy Martin's 1981 Oakland squad won its first 11 games, setting a new MLB record at the time. After their initial winning streak ended with the loss to the Mariners, the A's won another six straight to put them at 17-1 on the season and 4 1/2 games up in the AL West. But as hot as they were in April, they were nearly as cold for stretches in May.
Starting with a loss to the Brewers on May 10, the A's lost 10 of 11, including eight in a row. They finished the month 13-17 and saw their division lead dwindle to just one game. June started better — they were 6-3 through their first nine — but then a players strike halted the season until Aug. 10. Because MLB adopted a split-season format due to the strike, the A's earned an automatic playoff berth, as they were in first place at the time of the strike. They kept up their winning ways in the second half, though they finished in second place with a 27-22 record. They enjoyed some postseason success, sweeping the Royals in a special one-time-only division series before getting swept themselves by the Yankees in the ALCS.
The 1982 Braves (13-0)
Just one season after the A's set the record for hottest start, the Braves did them a couple of wins better, starting 13-0. And streaks would certainly define the '82 Braves, both good and bad.
After winning Game 13 with a come-from-behind walk-off win against the Reds on April 21, the Braves lost five straight. Their 16-5 April was followed by an 11-15 May. Back-to-back strong winning months in June and July were followed by back-to-back losing months in August and September. But it was the losing in August that was especially brutal.
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From July 30 through Aug. 18, the Braves slogged through a stretch in which they lost 19 of 21 games, fueled by an 11-game losing streak that included four walk-off losses in extra innings. That abysmal showing took Atlanta from 8 1/2 games up in the NL West to four games back. But then those streaky rascals won six straight to get right back in the hunt. And despite an overall 13-14 record in September, the Braves went 2-1 in October and managed to win the division by one game on the last day of the season. But then they were swept in three straight by the eventual world champion Cardinals in the NLCS.
The 1987 Brewers (13-0)
The '87 Milwaukee squad might offer the most cautionary tale of all. Like the '82 Braves, the Brewers won their first 13 games of the '87 season. Once that streak ended with a 7-1 loss to the White Sox, the Brewers won another four in a row to sit at 17-1. They went 3-2 over their next five to build a five-game lead in the AL West, but that's pretty much when their season went sideways.
The Brewers, who were 20-3 at that point, then lost 12 straight and fell out of first place, never to return. And even after they ended that streak with two straight wins, they then lost another six straight to put them six games out of first place on May 29. From five games up to six games down in less than a month. Not ideal.
Though they had several other modest winning streaks in the second half, the Brewers finished the season at 91-71, in third place and seven games out of first. And in the pre-wild card era, that meant watching the postseason from home. The Brewers gave truth to an old adage, if adapted just a bit: You can't win a division in May, but you can definitely lose one.
So, take all that for what it's worth, 2023 Rays. There are obviously no guarantees in baseball. But now that your winning streak has gone to 11, just try to avoid falling shoes.