The Suns kicked off the 2023 offseason with yet another "all-in" move, trading Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and multiple draft picks to the Wizards for three-time All-Star Bradley Beal. It's the latest instance of "superteam" building in the NBA, with Beal joining Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to form a nucleus of scorers with a lifetime combined average of 73 points per game.
In terms of pure scoring and short-term impact, we agree with our colleague Steph Noh: this was a fantastic move for Phoenix GM James Jones and the Mat Ishbia/Isiah Thomas think-tank at the top of the Valley totem pole. But does this move make Phoenix the best bet to win the West for the second time in four years, or even pull down the franchise's first NBA title? Or is Beal simply fool's gold, causing irrational spikes in the Suns' odds and thus creating better value elsewhere?
Let's discuss how the 2024 Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals markets have shifted since the Beal-CP3 deal, and how you should proceed as a bettor.
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How did the Bradley Beal trade affect the Suns' 2024 odds?
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click here to sign up!
| Timeframe | To win West. Finals | To win NBA Finals |
| After 2023 Finals | +550 | +850 |
| After Beal-CP3 trade | +350 | +650 |
Long story short, Beal has shortened Phoenix's odds. Whereas the Suns were +850 to win the 2024 NBA Finals directly following the Nuggets' 2023 championship, the new trio of KD, Book, and Beal now sit at +650. That's about a 15 percent implied winning probability, which is pretty sizable considering Phoenix didn't even make the Western Conference Finals in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Phoenix trails only the reigning-champion Nuggets (+500), the Celtics (+550), and the Bucks (+600) on the NBA Finals future board. Denver beat the Suns in six games in the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals after Paul suffered a groin injury that sidelined him for five of the six contests. Milwaukee beat Phoenix in the 2021 NBA Finals, just the Suns organization's third chance at an NBA title.
Shifts in conference championship and Finals odds following blockbuster trades (or semi-blockbusters) come as no surprise to anyone. But the majority of the line movement we tend to see following big moves is in anticipation of bettors, not simply reactions to personnel changes or updated prognostications from oddsmakers. Smart books see action coming, determine their risk-reward numbers, and set lines accordingly.
The natural inclination of the everyday sports bettor is to get in on the action when big news breaks or a team improves in any way. The Suns got Beal, many bettors immediately thought after the news broke. I'd better put some money on them to win next year.
BetMGM, one of the smartest and most professional sports betting operations in the world, cunningly adjusted the odds by just -200. This shift slightly reduces the books' liabilities if Phoenix does win it all next year, without greatly reducing the Suns-related action right now. As a result of this proactive line shift (as opposed to reactively shifting once the public started heavily betting Phoenix), the bets have been flooding in. Just look at this tweet from our friend John Ewing, a data and public relations specialist at BetMGM:
Since Bradley Beal trade, 65% of money is on @Suns +650 to win NBA Championship at @BetMGM. pic.twitter.com/v1GIWdLQZR
— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 19, 2023
Sixty-five percent!? We knew there would be some increased action, but we had no idea the Suns would all of a sudden command nearly seven out of every 10 NBA Finals bets. That just seems silly, especially considering how much can change between now and June 2024. Let's discuss why we would pump the brakes and fade the Suns, at least for now.
Why the Suns at +650 make a terrible NBA Finals bet
Many factors go into why betting Phoenix at +650 to win the 2024 NBA Finals is a fool's errand. Let's go over the three biggest ones.
The Denver Nuggets
Denver, the biggest obstacle in Phoenix's quest of 2023 NBA Finals glory, won't just suddenly disappear. And DeAndre Ayton, the resident big man in the Valley, won't suddenly become a great defender or a dominant offensive force. Denver had everybody's number this year, and as Mike Malone said, they're "not satisfied" with just the one chip.
The Suns have a superteam by modern standards, yes — but "superteam" in the 21st century means three or four great offensive players who may or may not be a good defensive core. The Nuggets have an all-around strong rotation of seven-eight players, above-average defense from top to bottom, and oh yeah, the best individual player in the world in Nikola Jokic. As Seinfeld once said, "Good luck with all that."
Injury concerns
The proverbial elephant in the room for Phoenix and its main rotational cogs is health. Durant is undeniably one of the best pure scorers in the NBA (ever) when he's healthy, but he's played 137 total games across the past four regular seasons. Book has reached 70 games just once since his sophomore season in the NBA, averaging 62.6 regular season games per campaign.
Beal's iron man days are also behind him — after finishing his 2018 and '19 All-Star seasons having played all 82 games, he has averaged just under 52 games per season in the four years since. And we all know about DeAndre Ayton, widely regarded as one of the softest bigs in the NBA. Jokic took his lunch money in the NBA Playoffs, and the Bahamian didn't even step on the floor in Game 6.
Depth issues
Another problem Frank Vogel will likely encounter throughout his first full season as Suns coach — and likely once again in the 2024 NBA Playoffs — is depth. Phoenix traded elite three-and-D forward Mikal Bridges and sharpshooter Cameron Johnson to Brooklyn this season to acquire KD, then packaged CP3 and Landry Shamet in the recent Beal deal. The Suns have also shipped away a ton of draft equity, and won't have much salary to move in order to add complementary pieces.
With nearly $162.9 million owed to KD, Beal, Book, and Ayton next season, Phoenix will be very top-heavy even if James Jones can add some veteran ring-chasers on minimum deals. As it currently stands, the Suns have their big four on the books, non-guaranteed options of $6.5 mil on backup point guard Cam Payne and $1.9 mil on backup forward Ish Wainwright, and that's it. Not great, Bob!
The Nuggets recently proved that it takes more than just a couple superstars to win it all in this league — and Milwaukee, Philly, and even Phoenix showed us that one or two injuries can derail a squad's title quest if it doesn't have depth. Don't put money on the Suns until they start spending some of theirs on a supporting cast.
The best course of action for bettors
As we always suggest, wait until the market cools. Don't run out and place a bet on the Suns to win the 2024 Larry O'Brien Trophy because 65 percent of Finals bettors are doing it. In fact, that's the exact reason you should not be doing it. The buildings in Las Vegas wouldn't be quite so tall if the most popular bets always won.
Once other teams make some moves — big draft picks, draft-day deals, free agency signings, more blockbusters — the odds will likely shift once again. Then, once the Suns' odds lengthen again, you can reevaluate their chances and reassess their roster to decide whether they are worth a bet. As currently constituted, they are far from worth anything more than a $20 scratch ticket in hopes of a $150 jackpot.
It takes more than four elite scorers to win a championship, and it takes more than a shot-in-the-dark Finals bet 12 months in advance to succeed as a bettor. Let the crowd of average bettors chase breaking stories and hunt improbable glory — we're playing the long game, and betting with our heads rather than our hearts.