Reigning four-time Wimbledon champion and second-seeded Novak Djokovic (-20000) takes on the oldest player in the field, Stan Wawrinka (+1800), in a Round of 32 match on Friday. Djokovic has his eyes set on a 24th grand slam, and the betting market is expecting him to continue his dominance on grass, giving him -165 odds to claim the Wimbledon men's singles title for an eighth time.
While Djokovic has yet to drop a set so far this tournament, he was tested in his second-round matchup against Australian Jordan Thompson. Djokovic easily claimed the first set (6-3) but needed a tiebreaker to take the second set (7-6). Djokovic couldn't gain much margin on Thompson in the third but ultimately prevailed 7-5.
Meanwhile, the 38-year-old Wawrinka is into the third round of Wimbledon for the first time since 2015 after defeating Emil Ruusuvuori (7-6,7-5, 6-4) in the first round before taking down 29th-seeded Tomas Martin Etcheverry (6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2) on Thursday. Wawrinka's attempting to prolong his stay in this Grand Slam, taking down Djokovic for the seventh time in his career and first time since the '19 US Open.
Can the Swiss shock the world and hand Djokovic his first defeat at Wimbledon in over 2,000 days, or will "Nole" again cruise into the Round of 16? Below, we'll break down the odds for Friday's Djokovic-Wawrinka Round of 32 match while providing our best bet for this bout between two tennis legends.
Wimbledon 2023 betting odds: Novak Djokovic vs. Stan Wawrinka
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Stan Wawrinka +1800
- Novak Djokovic -20000
Unfortunately for Wawrinka, there's little doubt as to which player will advance to the Round of 16, as Djokovic's -20000 price tag gives him a 99.5-percent chance of improving to 21-6 all-time against Wawrinka. Djokovic and Wawrinka last met during the '22 Italian Open (clay), with "Nole" winning in straight sets (6-2, 6-2).
Djokovic displayed some issues in his return game against Thompson on Wednesday, as Thompson ended the match winning 14 service games and 71 service points. Against a more potent server in Wawrinka, Djokovic could have some trouble breaking the Swiss, potentially setting up another match similar to his second-round bout.
That said, you can already sharpie in Djokovic's name into the Round of 16, as his ability to sustain rallies and force Wawrinka into errors more times than not will result in yet another win at the All England Club.
Set spread
- Stan Wawrinka +2.5 sets (+230)
- Novak Djokovic -2.5 sets (-380)
Djokovic is also a heavy favorite to take care of Wawrinka in straight sets, as his -380 price on the set spread implies he has a 79.17-percent chance to defeat Wawrinka 3-0.
While it's not nearly as steep of a price to bet Djokovic to win in straight sets as it is to bet him to win outright, Wawrinka's ability to hold his own during service games could potentially result in him stealing a set. Wawrinka won 93 percent of points on his first serve in his second-round matchup against Etcheverry, and even at age 38, the Swiss still has some gas left in the tank.
We recommend refraining from laying -380 on the Joker to win in straight sets, as there are better ways to wager on this match by risking less to potentially return a larger profit.
Total games
- OVER 30.5 games (-105)
- UNDER 30.5 games (-115)
While there aren't worthwhile betting opportunities in the moneyline and the set spread markets, we see an opportunity to bet into the total games market. Djokovic's second-round match against Thompson lasted 34 games, with Thompson showing his ability to hold serve. Against a more potent server in Wawrinka, we think Friday's match goes OVER 30.5 games.
The last best-of-five match between the two that didn't end because of an injury suspension was their bout in the '16 US Open Final, a four-setter won by Wawrinka (6-7, 6-4, 7-5, 6-3). Wawrinka isn't nearly the player he was back then, but he's one of the few players still on tour capable of tangling with the Joker. Look for Friday's match to last at least 31 games.