"Bowl projections are meaningless!"
That's the battle cry you'll hear most when you release bowl projections this time of year. You should see the emails and tweets. I started doing bowl projections for Sporting News in 2014 — the first year of the College Football Playoff.
I've learned the college football fans not only think bowl projections are meaningless — they also love to pick apart those projections apart on a weekly basis.
I will hold myself accountable. Over the last nine years, I hit on 19 of 36 playoff teams (52.8%) and 10 of the 18 championship game participants (55.6% percent). So I'm a little more than half right on these things, which is fine.
Admit it. Bowl projections are fun, even when you're wrong. The playoff picks are the most important part, so I looked back at the last nines years to see just how meaningless those picks were. Enjoy.
*Denotes picked to make championship game
MORE: SN Bowl Predictions for 2023
2014
SN playoff picks: Alabama vs. Oklahoma*, Florida State vs. Oregon*
Who we got right: Alabama, Florida State, Oregon
Who we missed: Ohio State
Looking back: Not bad for the first year. Nailed the Florida State-Oregon semifinal and had the Ducks in the championship game. The problem is the Oklahoma pick. The Sooners lost five games that season, which led to the hiring of offensive coordinator and future coach Lincoln Riley.
2015
SN playoff picks: TCU vs. Ohio State*, Auburn vs. Oregon*
Who we got right: None
Who we missed: Alabama, Michigan State, Clemson, Oklahoma
Looking back: This was the only year I didn't get one playoff team right. We fell for the Jeremy Johnson hype on an Auburn team that lost six games. Oregon lost four games with Vernon Adams. Ohio State and TCU were legit playoff contenders, but this was a year we should have just bet on Bama.
2016
SN playoff picks: Alabama* vs. Ohio State, Clemson* vs. Oklahoma
Who we got right: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson
Who we missed: Washington
Looking back: We were close to the clean sweep, but Oklahoma finished with two losses and ended up at No. 7 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. This is where the pick Alabama-Clemson every year trend started, but I messed that up the following year.
2017
SN playoff picks: USC* vs. Florida State, Alabama* vs. Ohio State
Who we got right: Alabama
Who we missed: Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma
Looking back: We went all in on USC with Sam Darnold following their victory in the Rose Bowl against Penn State the previous season. The Trojans lost at Washington State and Notre Dame in the regular season. We missed Oklahoma again and didn't account for the two-SEC team scenario. That's hard to pick in a four-team playoff.
2018
SN playoff picks: Alabama* vs. Oklahoma, Clemson* vs. Ohio State
Who we got right: Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma
Who we missed: Notre Dame
Looking back: Three of four again. We have picked the Buckeyes to make the Playoff every year since the first one, and the argument between Ohio State and Oklahoma for that final spot was intense. We didn't account for Notre Dame breaking through with an undefeated regular season.
2019
SN playoff picks: Clemson* vs. Texas, Alabama* vs. Ohio State
Who we got right: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State
Who we missed: Texas
Looking back: We thought Texas was back. The Longhorns’ season fell apart after early-season losses to LSU – the eventual national champion; and Oklahoma – another playoff team. We don’t regret the pick given we got everything else right.
2020
SN playoff picks: Ohio State* vs. Oklahoma, Clemson* vs. Alabama
Who we got right: Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama
Who we missed: Oklahoma
Looking back: This was the COVID-19 year, and we hit three of four. Notre Dame was the one-year ACC rental that took the other playoff spot, and Alabama won the national championship.
2021
SN playoff picks: Alabama* vs. Ohio State, Clemson* vs. Oklahoma
Who we got right: Alabama
Who we missed: Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma
Looking back: Alabama saved us here. Oklahoma and Clemson fell off their perches in their respective conferences, and Ohio State lost to Michigan in the Big Ten finale. We missed on national champion Georgia – and that changed how we picked games the following season.
2022
SN playoff picks: Clemson vs. Alabama*, Georgia vs. Ohio State*
Who we got right: Georgia, Ohio State
Looking back: Clemson, Alabama
What we're counting on: Our records show that we did pick TCU in the playoff – way back in 2015. We didn’t think Michigan would beat Ohio State for a second straight season, but the Buckeyes still made the CFP and Georgia held up.
2023
SN playoff picks: USC vs. Michigan*, Georgia* vs. Ohio State
What we're counting on: This is the last year of the four-team playoff, so we're counting on projecting this to be easier than 12 teams next year. We'll go with Michigan and Ohio State again knowing it's a stretch to get both Big Ten teams in the CFP for the second straight season. We have picked Ohio State to make the CFP every year except 2014, which is the year they won it. Georgia and USC round out our field. Why not go out by getting all four right?